Whenever I have these discussions, I always consider the Vegas line to be the gold standard. There are some incredible studies showing just how accurate those guys are. The end results end up being over 49-51% of the time with typical over/under betting lines. And they have to be. If they are too optimistic or pessimistic about a team, the sharks will kill them. There are people out there studying every team and every statistic and every situation and looking for a bad number by the Vegas guys.

So when you predict 9-3, there is nothing wrong with that. But it is a negative prediction compared to those odds. And I doubt most Ute fans (who are going to look at their team favorably) are going to be happy with that.

For comparison:

SI put Utah at 11-1 https://www.si.com/college/utah/utah-utes-post-spring-ball-2024-record-prediction
MSN picked them to win the Big 12 and play in the CFP https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/utah-football-way-too-early-bold-predictions-for-2024-season/ar-BB1pHQaY?item=flightsprg-tipsubsc-v1a?loadin=defaultbrowser
Athlon picked the Utes 14th and said "Realistically, anything short of a College Football Playoff berth would be a letdown" https://athlonsports.com/college-football/utah-football-utes-prediction-preview-2024
CBS Sports picked the over on 9.5 and said "If this line is in question, it's hard to view it as anything but a disappointment"
Saturday Blitz predicts 10-2 with a B12 championship https://saturdayblitz.com/posts/post-spring-2024-game-by-game-predictions-for-utah-football-01hy3nha8xmc/6
College Sports Wire 11-1 https://collegesportswire.usatoday.com/lists/utah-utes-football-game-predictions-big-12/
Newsweek - Big12 champs https://www.newsweek.com/way-too-early-college-football-playoff-predictions-1922360
The Oklahoman - Big12 champs https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/big-12/2024/07/08/2024-big-12-football-order-of-finish-projected-by-usa-today-sports-network-championship/74321421007/
ClutchPoints - Big12 champs and CFP https://clutchpoints.com/utah-football-way-too-early-bold-predictions-2024-season
Phil Steele - Big12 champs https://x.com/WestCoastCFB/status/1804713300825194525
Big12 Media Poll - Big12 champs
Big12 Coaches Poll - Big12 champs
FanDuel - Big12 champs betting favorite https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2024/03/04/look-utah-is-the-betting-favorite-to-win-the-big-12-in-2024/


I didn't hand pick any of these or leave out any negative predictions. These were the top predictions when I simply googled "Utah football predictions 2024". And nowhere in my post did I call you irrational or even refer to that possibility.

Yes, I would say that your predictions are negative when compared to pretty much everyone else out there. But with a 9.5 O/U, there is still a 50% chance that you will be correct and provide a "told you so". But other so called experts look at that 9.5 objectively and pick the over. Someone will be right. It might be you.