I know there's a lot of speculation that at some point there will be further conference consolidation down to just 2 power conferences (and honestly, if that happens, conferences would probably no longer exist individually and it would just become a single league).

But I've been thinking through the possible scenarios and implications over the past little while and my belief is firm that the math doesn't support such a small group of "Power Schools"...in that any number fewer than essentially the current group of Power Schools (~65 in total) would leave out many the top 1000 players, which are considered the top HS athletes being recruited each year.

Quick fact: only 39% of all the NFL draft picks this past draft came from SEC and B1G combined, which means that the majority (61%) came from the non-Power Two + G5 and FCS.

The add'l consolidation happening this coming season might bump that closer to 50% across the power 2, but still the ACC (which is staying intact + growing next season) was the #2 among all conferences in total NFL draft picks and wasn't actually all that far behind the SEC in draftees and even had MORE than the B1G. So what does that say?

Another Quick fact: 10 of the 32 NFL 1st round draft picks in '24 were 3* players when they were being recruited out of HS. Only 4 of the 32 were 5* recruits. 1 wasn't even rated.

For BYU, over the past 15 years, here is what the ranking make up of their draft picks looks like:
0- 5* Draft Picks
5- 4* (Suamataia, Warner, Puka)
6- 3* (Zach W, Freeland)
5- 2* (Allgeier, Khyiris, Brady Christensen)
4- No Rating (Ziggy, Pitta and others)

Those familiar with the 247 ranking system is probably aware that there are 1000 recruits per yr that rank .8600 or higher which make up the best incoming college recruits. This cohort breaks down to 35- 5* recruits per year, ~415- 4* and 500 *high-level* 3* recruits transitioning from HS to college each season. There are also many recruits that may be unheralded coming in, but end up 5*/first round NFL picks by their Jr/Sr years.

For context, of BYU's 25 HS commits last '24 cycle, only 12 of them were rated 86 or higher. Utah only had 11 incoming recruits rated higher than 86 in their '24 class per 247 rankings.

As for the New Big XII, Texas Tech has the #1 HS recruiting class in the conference this past cycle (#25 nationally) and had 19 out of their 21 recruits ranked 86 or higher. Georgia, which had the #1 HS recruiting class in 2024 nationally, had 27 out of 28 rated 86 or higher.

Also, something to point out is that College FB is very different from college BBall in that it's not a one and done type system before entering the league. No freshmen are getting drafted in the NFL, its more of a physical maturity requirement to prepare them for the league so most NFL-bound players will likely play 4-5 seasons before opting for the draft (3-4 seasons plus a possible redshirt). Most players will need this time to be physically ready for the NFL.

The reason I point this out is because, by this math, there are approx. 5,000 kids rated 86 or higher playing at any given time during that 5 year window ...and this is NOT including the late bloomers that come in 2* or 3* guys that end up in the NFL. Adding these guys in may push that total up to 6K) Yes, some will get drafted as Jr.'s or not pan out, so I would stick to 5K total "prime talent" at any given time.

Each "Power" team has 22 starting spots plus punter and kicker, so a two deep will have just shy of 50. The reason I bring up just the two deep is because the Transfer Portal is the great talent equalizer at this point. If you're a great talent, you don't want to sit behind someone else, you want to be playing. This is the key reason I feel consolidation will never effectively dip below 50-65 Power teams because kids are going to bolt to another team with maybe a lower level of talent for an immediate starting role or at the lease, a significant change in their opportunity at playing time. It's going to be difficult for teams to stockpile talent deeper than the 2-deep IMO with the way the transfer portal is set up currently.

So let's start working through the math here. If you have 65 Power Schools x 50 players on the two-deep, that's a total of 3,250 total players, which is shy of the 5,000 86 rating and above I referenced earlier. That would leave 1,750 of these higher level talent to either be content at 3rd string on the depth chart or bolt for a better opportunity or even a G5 or FCS, which very well could happen.

Let's even bump that up to 75 players (so the 3-deep) x 65 teams which equals 4,875... soooo, you could have 3-deeps stacked with top-level talent on each of the 65 power schools and still have some left out.

Now obvioulsy, not every 86+ player is going to choose P4 schools because some may have life situations where they need to be close to home (like Marcus Adams w/ BYU BB that transferred to a small school) or they're homesick after a year and want to play closer to home, these types of situations...

Yes, you're going to have Bama, OSU, Georgia, Michigan etc with the top, top-end talent, but there are only 35- 5* kids coming out each year and they do tend to enter the NFL draft earlier (after Jr season w/o a redshirt generally) meaning they cycle through and into the NFL faster, so you may only have 35 x 3 (105) playing in CFB at any given time and they would be spread across probably 15-20 teams, so 5 or so on avg with each of the blue bloods, which shows that the lions share are upper 3 and 4* recruits.

In summary, there are a LOT of talented players that pour out each season, enough to easily stack 65 power schools 3-deep. If anything, I believe the talent will move to where there is opportunity to showcase themselves the best they can, and will moderate the talent gap somewhat between top and bottom. How good coaching is may really start to be what differentiates results as we move into this new era of CFB.