There's two potential avenues to an NY6, neither of which seems likely.

Option 1: Neither BYU nor Michigan St play, but the committee somehow decides that BYU should be ranked ahead of Michigan State

How it happens:

Well, Michigan St has the better win (over #2 Michigan, as compared to ours over #17 Utah).

They also have better losses (both were blown out on the road by a top 9 team - Mich St lost by more to a slightly better team, so that loss might be slightly better for BYU, but it's not huge either way - but the difference is that 2nd loss.  Mich St lost on the road to a probably top 30 8-4 Big 10 team, while BYU lost at home to a 7-5 MWC team).

And a tougher schedule (#23 SOS for Mich St, #66 for BYU by Sagarin)

So I'm honestly not sure how we'd suddenly jump them.  The only argument I've seen is for us to have wins over multiple conference champions - so that means rooting hard for Utah, Utah St and Baylor (a loss, but would help make it a better loss). Even then, I don't think it would be enough

Option 2: Oklahoma St wallops Baylor, Baylor drops behind BYU

How it happens:

This one seems slightly more believable, but has its own difficulties

The committe has shown a strong disinclination to move underdog teams down as a result of losing in their conference championship game, plus Baylor has the H2H with us...so even a big loss isn't guaranteed to put them behind us.

Even if Baylor does drop behind us, that would give Ok St a strong chance to move up into the playoff....which would then result in another Big 12 team (Baylor or Oklahoma) making an NY6 and bumping us.

Because of this we'd need Alabama, Cincy, Michigan to all win and stay above Oklahoma St (We'd need Cincy and Michigan to win anyway so that some other lower ranked team doesn't sneak in as a bid thief with a conference championship).

Even if all that happens (Oklahoma St win over Baylor, Alabama win over Georgia, Cincy win over Houston, Michigan win over Iowa), it's 50/50 on us passing Baylor and 50/50 on Oklahoma St passing Cincy.

Overall, that gives a (odds from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-college-football-predictions/)

62% chance Oklahoma St beats Baylor
38% chance Alabama beats Georgia
78% chance Cincy beats Houston
73% chance Michigan beats Iowa
50% chance Baylor drops below us with loss
50% chance Cincy stays above Oklahoma St

For a total chance of ... 3.35%