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Jan 2, 2025
9:26
:57
am
BYU'01
All-American
Who created/maintains their model?
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BYU'01
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BYU'01
Joined
Jan 18, 2003
Last login
Jan 5, 2025
Total posts
8,859 (144 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Holy win probability
Indy Coug
Loquacious Lummox
Jan 2, 9:21am
Who created/maintains their model?
BYU'01
Jan 2, 9:26am
I don't know all the nitty gritty, but it's mostly a function of
Indy Coug
Jan 2, 9:29am
It has always seemed incredibly volatile for something based on good data
BYU'01
Jan 2, 9:33am
It's a situational snapshot based on a moment in time. As new events unfold, that's going to change things
Indy Coug
Jan 2, 9:36am
For example, you had a Texas kicker who had made 91.3% of his FGA inside of 40 yards for his career
Indy Coug
Jan 2, 9:38am
It’s pretty terrible and needs to be adjusted
canuckchuck
Jan 2, 9:46am
You realize that 99.9% is not 100%, right?
Indy Coug
Jan 2, 9:48am
These charts turn into a weekly meme
canuckchuck
Jan 2, 10:22am
👍 there have been a 1k games in similar circumstances & only 1 underdog won?
BYU'01
Jan 2, 9:54am
I don't have the data, but it's very likely you don't either
Indy Coug
Jan 2, 9:55am
Absolutely; just curious what their dataset & model looks like
BYU'01
Jan 2, 9:58am
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