So there's a scenario where BYU plays (and beats) a 4-7 Houston team and then gets into the CCG by virtue of Iowa St and ASU and Colorado losing.

So then we win the CCG against someone like Baylor

Tulane is currently (AP Poll) ranked ahead of BYU. If Tulane goes and beats 9-2 Memphis and then 10-1 Army (#25 in AP Poll) is that more impressive than BYU beating 4-8 Houston and 8-4 Baylor

Or are the quality of those two BYU wins enough to bump BYU ahead of Tulane, when Tulane is (at the moment) already ranked ahead of BYU.

That's why it's showing there's a chance. Not likely at all, but some extreme outside possibility