And each of the scenarios give a pretty clear path to 'in' or 'out'. (IMHO)

If they lose to OSU and don't make the CCG, they won't get in.
If they win out, they easily get in, probably as the #1 seed, which makes sense cause they'll have beat OSU and Oregon.
If they beat OSU, then lose in the CCG, then they get in.
If they lose to OSU, then win the CCG (Seems incredibly unlikely), then they get in, with a bye.