Ran the two scenarios: 1st rnd vs GA w/ 15% win, or 2nd rnd vs Boise w/ 85% win

Oct 28, 2024
1:08:19pm

seacougar All-American

Sure would prefer the latter. That simulation puts BYU in semi-finals vs Miami, and then playing the winner of KSU and ND in the NC game.

That has to be the best possible scenario for BYU, matchup-wise.

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seacougar

Bio page: seacougar
Joined: Oct 5, 2010
Last login: Dec 25, 2024
Total posts: 1,792 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

So is the general consensus that if we beat Utah and Kansas

Zerigke Ally Zerigke

Oct 28, 11:35am

no there's still a lot that can happen.

Socrates Johnson

Oct 28, 11:35am

Nope. If KSU wins out and ISU wins out except KState, they would both get in ahead of a 1-loss BYU

unctoothman

Oct 28, 11:37am

Doesn't BYU have the tie breaker against KSU?

Mostlyaccurate

Oct 28, 11:38am

We don't play Iowa State so H2H with Kansas State doesn't apply.

OnEMoReTrY

Oct 28, 11:39am

It does apply after the 3-way tiebreaker is used to determine who finishes 1st.

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 11:45am

This has already been hashed out on twitter. The consensus is you are wrong

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 11:49am

Yes, I've seen these posts, and they are almost certainly wrong

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 11:49am

It all comes down to the interpretation of who the “next common opponent” is

BYUCLA

Oct 28, 11:51am

Yes, some lawyerly types are trying to argue that "next-best" means "next-worse"

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 11:53am

Look, I agree completely with you but I've had years of listening to conferences

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 11:56am

Man I hope you’re right on this but I’m too dumb to figure it out.

YOHONOMOTO

Oct 28, 1:50pm

I'm expecting the tie breaks all the way to coin flip. We'll dominate that.

refunder

Oct 28, 12:43pm

I sure hope you are right. Is there anything you are looking at that makes you

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 11:52am

If our only loss is to ASU it doesn't even matter, we would be 6-0 versus common

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:55am

Yes, the actual Big 12 tiebreaking procedure. The confusion arises over the

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 11:57am

I'm guessing the Big 12 won't say anything until before that last weekend.

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 12:00pm

you just rewrote the tie-breaker to "best common opponent" and

Best Guess

Oct 28, 1:23pm

Yes, it doesn’t say “next-worse”, it says “next-best”. In this scenario, the

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 1:30pm

It says "proceeding through the standings." Can't ignore that part

Doogal McCougar

Oct 28, 2:06pm

Big12 knows what it means and will interpret it as they want it interpreted

NYC and Japan

Oct 28, 1:47pm

FWIW, the Big 12 CCG tool shows BYU @ #2 in that scenario

Doogal McCougar

Oct 28, 2:05pm

What tool are you talking about?

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 2:10pm

The Big 12 champion generator tool that you linked in your post

Doogal McCougar

Oct 28, 2:11pm

OK. Yeah. The issue is that isn't official. I hope it is wrong.

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 2:13pm

According to that tool. If we lose to Arizona State it doesn't matter if

Powerbait DPM

Oct 28, 3:46pm

Yes it does

Zoobieman

Oct 28, 2:17pm

Only head to head. We do NOT want to be in a 3 way tie with KState. KState is

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 11:40am

So a one loss byu to say asu would not get in over a one loss ksu

franklyvulgar

Oct 28, 11:42am

If our only loss is to ASU we will play KSU in the CCG, we get in over ISU

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:52am

This is correct. ASU loss is the "best" loss to have. Got to win next two games

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 11:54am

This is not correct.

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 11:46am

It's more likely to be a 4 way tie at 8-1.

slatecoug

Oct 28, 4:02pm

Isn't that based on how other teams in the conference all do from now to then?

HRCougar

Oct 28, 11:41am

Only if our one loss is not to ASU

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:43am

Not accurate, although many on CB have been saying this.

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 11:43am

NOPE NOT SO FAST

realisticCoug42

Oct 28, 12:30pm

What if BYU is 12-0? Not “one loss”?

truecougster

Oct 28, 12:47pm

That tells me the rules are really stupid.

YOHONOMOTO

Oct 28, 1:49pm

Kansas State lost to a top team, BYU lost to a bottom team, advantage KSU

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 4:17pm

This only happens in a three+ team tie though, 2 way tie with them we win

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 4:17pm

Again that’s stupid. Like really stupid.

YOHONOMOTO

Oct 28, 4:26pm

Its the rare and coveted quality loss though, who cares about head to head

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 4:33pm

Not true. . . Even with Colorado in the mix.

Zoobieman

Oct 28, 2:17pm

Incorrect. BYU beats 1-loss ISU in the 2nd tiebreaker if our L is to ASU

RGGeemer

Oct 28, 6:11pm

There are some scenarios where we're still left out. But ASU loss is the "best"

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 11:37am

Which scenario has us out if we beat Utah and Kansas and Houston?

RGGeemer

Oct 28, 6:12pm

I think you're right. The scenario was before Tech and Cincy lost this past week

rcbyufan

Oct 28, 6:25pm

Yes, we are a lock for the CCG if our only loss is ASU

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:41am

<< Deleted >>

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:45am

Not at all. We are only a lock if we win out. If we lose a game, we could be

Japan Coug

Oct 28, 11:42am

If K-State loses to Iowa State then that's two losses versus BYU's one.

Schrodizzy

Oct 28, 11:46am

We get the nod over Colorado due to our win over Kansas State

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:47am

These next two games are very important then.

Schrodizzy

Oct 28, 11:48am

I rechecked, it actually doesnt matter, if ISU wins out and its us or Colorado

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:48am

Cuz we beat kstate who beat Colorado ?

franklyvulgar

Oct 28, 11:48am

Correct, assuming Kansas State doesn't lose any other games and is next highest

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 11:50am

I don’t want to chance it and I want to be in position for a CFP spot if we do make it to Arlington

runningryan

Oct 28, 12:12pm

The ESPN Playoff Predictor seems to think yes

Brandoblueblood

Oct 28, 12:13pm

Ran the two scenarios: 1st rnd vs GA w/ 15% win, or 2nd rnd vs Boise w/ 85% win

seacougar

Oct 28, 1:08pm

The definitive answer is yes, we are a lock if we only have 1 loss

arkansasbleedsblue

Oct 28, 1:01pm

We cant lose to Houston if Colorado doesn't win out. If Colorado wins out we can

BYUFootballisBack

Oct 28, 4:18pm

Correct

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