The Big 10 likely gets three at this point - Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State. I don't think Indiana or Illinois are legit and expect them to struggle the next few weeks.

I don't see the SEC getting anything less than 3 spots (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU) and depending on how things play out Alabama or Ole Miss or even Missouri may end up with two losses and be fighting for a spot.

The ACC appears to have two solid candidates in Miami & Clemson as well as SMU & Pitt as darkhorses. For better or worse, outside of Pitt vs Clemson & Pitt vs SMU, the top teams don't play each other. It's possible that the ACC could have three one loss teams and none of them having a regular season top 25 win.

Boise State & Notre Dame appear to have fairly easy paths to the playoff at this point. Army & Navy are wildcards at this point but I don't think either of them can run the table.

If we assume that the SEC & Big 10 get three spots & ND get's a bid (plus ACC, G5 & Big 12 champs), that leaves two spots left for the 4/5th place SEC, 2nd place ACC, and 2nd place Big 12 to fight for. I don't see an 11-2 BYU or Iowa State being selected over an 10-2 Alabama or LSU or even Missouri.