Chemistry and cohesiveness is massive in basketball. You can't just look at a roster and be confident they'll win with so much new.
Kentucky has historically had rosters loaded with 5 star guys and we've seen them struggle in certain seasons despite the insane talent. And Calipari had been there doing his thing for years, so at least the coaching and scheme were consistent.
Way too many unknowns on this team to be confident in anything beyond a top half of the conference finish (in this conference that is impressive regardless)