One thing i didn’t take into account is that the current ranking system is different from the CFP rankings which are all that really matter. In the past there have been pretty wide divergences between the AP poll and the CFP rankings with significant deference being given to P4 teams (to your point). I was concerned about where BSU is currently ranked relative to B12 teams but that’s not necessarily how the committee feels. Still, with UNLV now ranked they have the chance to get another solid win and of Oregon wins the B10 that loss could look not terrible. I don’t think the chances are great, but they’re not negligible either.