I spend a lot of time modeling and tracking viewership and I'd be shocked if Utah/Arizona draws anywhere near as many as BYU/K-State. Part of that is because 1.5M is a great number for the spot and so the best guess is the under but there's 3 reasons that I'm sure of it, even before we get into any difference in BYU or Utah's drawing power
- MATCHUP: 3-0 BYU vs 3-0 Kansas St were both undefeated. A matchup of unbeatens is going to inherently have more interest than 4-0 Utah vs 2-1 Arizona.
- OPPONENT: Having tracked viewership for the last 7 years, Arizona tends to draw terrible numbers. Kansas St is a much stronger draw (maybe the fanbase, maybe the location, can't say why). Even if the two teams are of relatively even quality, Arizona has been substantially worse at getting viewers.
- COMPETITION: This is probably the biggest reason. BYU/K-State was the only game going on at that time. Utah/Arizona has to go up against Wazzu vs #24 Boise St (on FS1, so not a huge issue) and also #8 Oregon @ UCLA (on FOX). That means Utah will be the #2 game for most people instead of the BYU game, which was the default top option
Other factors which could play a role (but don't really this time) are the quality of the lead-in game on the network. BYU had 7 Miami @ USF. Utah gets Stanford @ 17 Clemson. That's pretty close to a wash.