Sorry, hope I didn’t come off as saying your numbers are bologna, just that in the beginning, the probabilities go off of previous years like you said and that it is completely reasonable to have predicted them as they did. We essentially know nothing until the season starts and the more data you get the better your model predicts it.

Keep doing it, I love it!

I figured the probability wasn’t actually 0, but that was a HUGE jump to go to 1 in 250.

I didn’t realize that about even if you are highly favored, it is still an 85% chance of losing one game.