over the last few years.

2024:
14 players
8 of those players were on Top 6 Seed teams (i.e. Top 25)
1 player was on NC team
1 of those players advanced to Elite 8 and lost
0 other players advanced to Sweet 16
4 of those 20 lost in 2nd round
3 of those players lost in 1st round
2 of those players were on NIT caliber teams
3 of those players were on teams with losing records

2023:
20 players
12 of those 20 players were on Top 6 Seed teams
0 of those players advanced to the Elite 8 or further
8 of those 20 made the Sweet 16 but lost
7 of those players lost in 2nd round
3 of those players were on NIT teams
2 of those players were on teams w/ losing records

2022:
11 of those 20 players were on Top 6 Seed teams
3 of those 20 players advance to Final 4 (all 3 played for Duke)
0 other players advanced to Elite 8 or further
4 of those 20 made the Sweet 16 and lost (7 of 20 total made at least the Sweet 16)
8 of those players lost in 2nd round
3 of those players lost in 1st round
2 of those players were on teams w/ losing records


That's 54 players from 2022 through 2024 that were drafted (or projected to be drafted) in NBA draft after their Freshman years
Only 17 of those 54 advanced to 2nd weekend of tourney
Only 4 of those 54 advanced past the Sweet 16
12 of those 54 failed to make the NCAA tournament


What those numbers indicate is that teams w/ 1-and-done players have a little better than 50/50 chance of being a top-25 type of team, but the majority of those teams don't have very much success when it comes to the NCAA tournament. The "median" result would be something like a 4-6 seed in the tournament and losing in the Round of 32.