On point 1, it's not only about rosters (though that should help some), it's about facilities and coaching and administration. If the last decade of Independence hasn't been competing and prepping at a higher level than MWC play, it would be a terrible sign.

On point 2, I should clarify. The Big 12 as it currently exists (minus Texas and Oklahoma and with the 4 corners added). By 2023 the Big 12 was undoubtedly better/stronger/deeper than the PAC, but it's also losing the top teams. Also in 2023, BYU happened to play just about the most difficult Big 12 schedule possible. I don't expect that to be the norm (also, this is a reason for potential improvement). In 2013, Utah played the #3 schedule and finished 5-7. I doubt our third year schedule will be that difficult, so don't think we should take as long to adapt

And point 3, the transfer portal accelerates change. As you mentioned that can be for both good and bad... But in this case we'd expect that changes to BYU roster would likely be improving as we move into P4 status. If not, then there's other issues. It could provide a ceiling but we should be able to get to respectable more quickly