Holy win probability

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Jan 2, 2025
9:21:49am

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

Holy win probability

Texas-Arizona State was an actual rollercoaster 🎢 @ESPN_BillC breaks down the latest CFP games on ESPN+ ➡️ https://t.co/akkZJNQA9D pic.twitter.com/LgLIOBPNkj
— ESPN (@espn) January 2, 2025

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1874852988256170311

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: Jan 6, 2025
Total posts: 190,229 (10,160 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Holy win probability

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

Jan 2, 9:21am

Who created/maintains their model?

BYU'01

Jan 2, 9:26am

I don't know all the nitty gritty, but it's mostly a function of

Indy Coug

Jan 2, 9:29am

It has always seemed incredibly volatile for something based on good data

BYU'01

Jan 2, 9:33am

It's a situational snapshot based on a moment in time. As new events unfold, that's going to change things

Indy Coug

Jan 2, 9:36am

For example, you had a Texas kicker who had made 91.3% of his FGA inside of 40 yards for his career

Indy Coug

Jan 2, 9:38am

It’s pretty terrible and needs to be adjusted

canuckchuck

Jan 2, 9:46am

You realize that 99.9% is not 100%, right?

Indy Coug

Jan 2, 9:48am

These charts turn into a weekly meme

canuckchuck

Jan 2, 10:22am

👍 there have been a 1k games in similar circumstances & only 1 underdog won?

BYU'01

Jan 2, 9:54am

I don't have the data, but it's very likely you don't either

Indy Coug

Jan 2, 9:55am

Absolutely; just curious what their dataset & model looks like

BYU'01

Jan 2, 9:58am

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