An * means that the result of that game doesn't impact the CCG participants.  Probabilities are based on current ESPN FPI Win % (not updated yet from today's games)

EDIT: Reordered from most to least likely.

Also note that sometimes different scenarios give the same CCG participants, but are still listed separately just due to how unique the paths are.  This means you can't look at the very bottom and say ASU/K State only has a 0.04% chance, unless you look for the other places ASU/K-State is also listed