chance.

The Massey Ratings win probabilities haven't updated yet after today, but I can use the win probabilities from before the games this week to simulate the probabilities of these scenarios. I'll update this table and run my usual simulations in a couple days, but even with outdated probabilities, this table is still instructive:


And here's an overall CCG probability table as well as the probabilities of specific matchups, again based on outdated win probabilities for next week's games:



Expect updated versions of these graphs in the next few days.