Here's an update on the win probabilities and their implications based on ESPN FPI. Their model is finally recognizing BYU as a good team. In every prior week the win probabilities mostly shifted based on what other teams were doing. But this week the win percentages shifted towards us regardless of how the future opponent performed. 

Over the course of the season, we have gone from being a heavy underdog against most of our opponents to being favored or only slight underdogs. Looking forward, a bowl game is a near certainty — you don't need probabilities to tell you that. But we now have a ~70% chance of an 8-4 season. Before the season we were given a ~70% chance of missing a bowl game. 9-3 or better is basically a 50/50 proposition at this point.

I have not been tracking the weekly conference champ and playoff probabilities. But we currently sit at a 7% chance of winning the conference and 12% chance of making the playoff. This is a team that can compete with anyone left on the schedule, and we have a legitimate chance at a very special season. I don't think I ever came into a season with lower expectations for a BYU team and I don't think I'm alone in that. It would be fantastic to see one of the teams expected to do the least go on to achieve success unlike any team in recent memory. 

BYU Final Record Probabilities

BYU Win Probabilities according to ESPN