FromESPN predictor:
BYU-87.1% chance to beat Houston
ASU-71.6% chance to beat Arizona
ISU-54.4% chance to beat KSU
Colorado-81.4% chance to beat OSU

Calculations for 2 conf loss teams making CCG are below:
ASU-71.6% chance
ISU-54.4% chance
BYU-53.2% chance
Colorado - 15.6% chance

That leaves a 5.2% chance for a 3 conf loss team to make it in (incl the 4 above and several other 3 loss teams in conf)…so all probabilities above are slightly below actual probabilities.