If we make + win the CCG, ESPN now has us with 80% chance of making playoffs (31% first round bye, 49% 9-12 seed)
This is not updated to include the Colorado loss, but that shouldn't make much difference as that loss only impacts our chances to make the CCG.
This scenario outlined has us getting there and winning it. If anything, Colorado losing (in this scenario removes a future quality win).
That said, it does mean we could have a chance to avenge the ASU loss on a neutral field, which would surely look good for the committee.
I think that's the best case scenario - playing and beating ASU in the CCG