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Nov 12, 2024
9:22:52am
Sircumference Playmaker
This is a 1 in 4.723 million season or at the very least 1 in 41k

I went back and looked at the different win probabilities ESPN has given us this season during games.

Last week, ESPN gave Utah a 99.7% chance of winning on the last 4th and 10 with 1:35 left in the fourth quarter, leaving BYU with only a 0.3% chance of pulling off the comeback.

Against Oklahoma State, ESPN had Ok State at a 99.2% chance of victory with 52 seconds remaining when we had to convert 4th and 7, giving BYU a mere 0.8% chance.

When you combine the probabilities of these two miraculous wins happening in the same season, you get:
0.003 × 0.008 = 0.000024


That’s a joint probability of 0.0024%, or about 1 in 41,667 for just those two games. 

The other two times this season where I really felt like we were on the ropes was against SMU and KState.

After a really bad interception from Jake deep in their own territory, BYU was down 9-7. SMU had a 2nd and 5 on the BYU's 18-yard line. ESPN gave SMU an 81.1% chance of victory with 11 minutes left in the third quarter. Defense held to a field goal.

Against Kansas State, they were up 3-0 and inside our rezone, also with a 2nd and 5 with 11:50 left in the second quarter, ESPN gave them an 81.4% chance of victory. Again, the defense held to a field goal.

Assuming these events are independent, the combined probability of BYU winning all four games is:
0.003 × 0.008 × 0.186 × 0.189 = 0.0000002118

That translates to a probability of 0.00002118%, or roughly 1 in 4.723 million. Let that sink in for a second.  

Joel Klatt and other national commentators have said BYU reminds them of TCU 2022. I went to to see if in their entire season they had comparable probabilities:
- Oct 15th TCU v OK State, with 13:36 left in the fourth quarter, OK state had a 96.1% chance to win. - This game went into double overtime, TCU won.
- Nov 19th: TCU v Baylor, Baylor had a 92% chance to win with 8:52 left in the fourth. TCU won on a last second field goal.
- Calculating this joint we get: 0.039 × 0.08 = 0.00312
- So, the joint probability of TCU winning both games is 0.312%, or about 1 in 320.

If we just look at the first two games for BYU and compare them to these two games for 2022 TCU, we get
0.00312 /0.000024 = 130

Meaning that in just those two games, BYU’s results are 130 times more unlikely..

Whatever happens for the rest of the season, just enjoy it - 1 in 4.7 million odds don’t come around often!

PS: I got laid off from PwC last month in a structural pivot from the firm. If you know of anyone or are hiring in the data science space, would appreciate any warm leads. 



Cheers,

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Nov 12, 2024 at 9:22:52am
Message modified by Sircumference on Nov 12, 2024 at 9:25:57am
Message modified by Sircumference on Nov 12, 2024 at 9:30:11am
Message modified by Sircumference on Nov 12, 2024 at 9:45:11am
Message modified by Sircumference on Nov 12, 2024 at 12:51:16pm
Sircumference
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Sircumference
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