#1 HS players are usually really good, but there is a fair amount of variation. Clearly the value in a multimillion dollar player is NCAA tournament success (Sweet Sixteen or better) and being a high draft pick. If you look at the ten years from 2014-2023, out of those ten players, five of them meet both criteria (Holmgren, Barrett, Bagley, Jackson, Okafor). So even if you get the #1 HS player, it is about a 50/50 chance that the player will bring all of the glory to the school that we would hope for. I will say that 7 of the 10 players were top 5 picks, and all were drafted in the first round, even Labissiere, who had averaged an Atiki-like 6 points and 3 rebounds per game. Two of the ten teams had no postseason, two lost in the NCAA second round, two went to the Sweet Sixteen, three went to the Elite Eight, and one won the National Championship (Duke, with Okafor). So, with a #1 HS pick, the ceiling is very high, but the floor is also potentially very low.


2023- Isaiah Collier- Averaged 16.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists at USC, drafted 1st round, 29th pick by Utah Jazz. USC was 15-18 and Ninth place in the Pac-12. So he was a very solid player, but certainly not a game-changing player who made his team great.

2022- Nick Smith Jr.- averaged 12.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists for Arkansas. That team did make it to the Sweet Sixteen. He was drafted at the end of the first round by Charlotte.

2021- Chet Holmgren- 14.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists. Team was ranked number 1 and went to the Sweet Sixteen. He was the #2 pick in the draft.

2020- Cade Cunningham- 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists. Ok St ranked #11, lost in NCAA second round. #1 pick in the draft.

2019- James Wiseman- 19.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3 blocks. Memphis was unranked and had no postseason. Wiseman was the #2 pick.

2018- RJ Barrett- 22.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists. Duke was #1 and went to the Elite Eight. Barrett was the #3 pick in the draft.

2017- Marvin Bagley- 21 points, 11 rebounds. Duke was #9 and went to the Elite Eight. #2 pick in the draft.

2016- Josh Jackson- 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists. Kansas was #3 and went to the Elite Eight. #4 pick in the draft.

2015- Skal Labissiere- 6 points, 3 rebounds. Kentucky was top 10 but lost in the NCAA second round. #28 pick in the draft.

2014- Jahil Okafor- 17 points, 8 rebounds. Duke won the National Championship. #3 pick in the draft.