Think about it. Football is a violent, collision sport. Contact comes at a variety of angles, a variety of force and at a variety of times.

If fumbles were wholly or even mostly "controllable", wouldn't you expect to see consistent results from year to year for a given team for those teams that are better or worse at securing the ball? Here are the NCAA rankings by year for each team in terms of fumbles lost.

Name	               2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008

Air Force           	10	50	28	27	33	102	44	88	68

Akron               	21	10	78	14	33	53	30	63	10

Alabama             	47	50	21	14	43	28	44	27	49

Arizona             	60	99	41	14	94	82	6	88	68

Arizona St.         	83	63	115	102	94	42	59	77	18

Arkansas            	47	50	2	75	12	53	15	105	18

Arkansas St.        	30	50	106	27	81	70	102	27	18

Army                	10	76	64	114	12	4	85	100	119

Auburn              	60	76	64	49	81	53	44	32	87

Ball St.            	83	41	28	27	2	16	9	7	49

Baylor              	83	31	64	75	94	82	112	44	10

Boise St.           	18	63	86	59	43	109	59	32	102

Boston College      	1	76	8	37	43	53	59	27	108

Bowling Green       	4	3	8	92	12	16	15	77	77

Buffalo             	105	19	8	37	6	82	59	44	27

BYU                 	83	111	78	107	112	16	2	88	95

California          	96	111	13	59	57	53	22	88	37

Central Mich.       	96	41	28	27	12	1	59	44	3

Cincinnati          	30	31	41	110	81	82	72	100	102

Clemson             	30	41	86	4	23	4	112	10	87

Colorado            	60	63	41	92	33	96	22	44	49

Colorado St.        	60	76	86	114	57	16	9	16	3

Connecticut         			13	4	43	70	30	32	77

Duke                	10	63	28	27	94	42	93	63	37

East Carolina       	4	107	21	86	33	82	72	7	115

Eastern Mich.       	74	19	56	4	81	1	6	3	5

Fla. Atlantic       							44	3	95

Florida             	30	88	13	37	33	11	44	32	27

Florida Int'l       							59	100	49

Florida St.         	21	31	41	59	23	28	59	77	49

Fresno St.          	47	3	56	4	23	28	6	117	77

Georgia             	60	41	64	4	101	70	102	16	37

Georgia Tech        	10	19	28	59	81	16	9	77	118

Hawaii              	47	50	86	37	33	42	108	77	102

Houston             	83	76	106	114	33	96	59	105	110

Idaho               	47	93	28	92	107	42	44	63	77

Illinois            	74	19	41	37	72	4	117	77	49

Indiana             	101	19	13	19	12	42	93	119	49

Iowa                	30	31	41	49	6	42	72	10	87

Iowa St.            	4	1	28	27	23	70	22	63	68

Kansas              	111	50	64	49	43	53	93	16	37

Kansas St.          	47	19	110	75	107	112	44	44	95

Kent St.            	21	93	41	49	101	42	85	63	95

Kentucky            	60	31	21	19	101	112	44	112	27

La.-Lafayette       	30	76	86	19	57	82	22	32	49

La.-Monroe          	101	50	64	75	43	102	30	32	5

Louisiana Tech      	83	41	28	59	112	28	115	105	49

Louisville          	96	107	115	19	72	82	108	44	87

LSU                 	10	63	110	75	107	96	72	1	1

Marshall            	47	63	78	102	57	70	102	3	27

Maryland            	21	41	56	49	43	28	59	10	77

Memphis             	110	63	97	92	6	28	9	3	5

Miami (Fla.)        	105	50	56	92	23	70	30	63	5

Miami (Ohio)        	83	3	8	19	101	28	59	32	102

Michigan            	47	41	28	27	43	53	2	88	114

Michigan St.        	30	99	21	1	23	16	22	16	77

Middle Tenn. St.    	47	99	64	49	57	4	44	44	37

Minnesota           	30	1	28	37	4	11	1	44	68

Mississippi         	4	63	21	27	33	11	9	16	49

Mississippi St.     	101	50	97	92	57	53	30	44	27

Missouri            	74	19	1	2	23	102	102	16	27

Navy                	111	88	117	86	81	53	116	88	49

Nebraska            	30	93	56	86	57	70	112	63	110

Nevada              	30	10	13	19	81	82	85	88	102

New Mexico          	30	31	97	37	23	28	93	105	27

New Mexico St.      	83	114	41	59	81	112	118	16	87

North Carolina      	96	76	97	86	33	42	44	32	68

North Carolina St.  	30	10	64	59	112	53	15	32	10

North Texas         	74	50	106	75	43	28	44	16	108

Northern Ill.       	21	3	64	14	1	82	2	88	10

Northwestern        	10	41	78	75	2	82	72	10	49

Notre Dame          	3	76	86	14	12	11	15	112	68

Ohio                	47	99	97	114	72	11	93	44	110

Ohio St.            	10	31	28	49	101	112	72	27	18

Oklahoma            	47	19	2	4	43	96	118	63	1

Oklahoma St.        	47	93	8	37	4	117	44	77	49

Oregon              	18	10	13	86	101	42	93	100	95

Oregon St.          	30	99	41	75	72	96	108	88	10

Penn St.            	60	3	2	59	33	82	102	112	49

Pittsburgh          	111	88	41	19	12	109	30	16	87

Purdue              	18	63	113	27	57	28	30	88	49

Rice                	101	31	78	75	94	112	15	63	37

Rutgers             	96	115	86	37	107	1	15	77	5

San Diego St.       	60	88	106	59	57	82	22	16	95

San Jose St.        	21	63	86	37	81	28	85	1	10

SMU                 	30	111	41	49	94	102	72	77	18

South Carolina      	74	10	41	2	72	53	44	63	68

South Fla.          		93	28	86	57	53	93	117	49

Southern California 	111	19	13	75	81	16	15	44	49

Southern Miss.      	83	50	113	92	43	16	72	88	18

Stanford            	74	99	13	19	6	42	102	44	49

Syracuse            	1	19	41	49	81	82	72	44	37

TCU                 	30	19	78	59	6	28	85	112	18

Temple              	30	110	86	4	72	109	59	105	77

Tennessee           	21	41	97	37	23	102	30	10	37

Texas               	60	3	2	110	23	42	93	27	10

Texas A&M           	21	10	21	107	43	70	30	32	102

Texas Tech          	4	3	78	59	12	16	85	63	68

Toledo              	4	93	41	4	107	16	44	32	77

Troy                			97	102	57	70	85	100	77

Tulane              	21	63	41	59	12	53	85	44	18

Tulsa               	83	10	56	49	57	53	44	63	37

UAB                 	60	31	86	92	43	4	30	7	37

UCF                 	83	76	97	92	72	70	30	105	95

UCLA                	60	107	56	107	94	53	30	112	27

UNLV                	60	99	64	59	112	16	72	10	18

Utah                	74	10	56	92	43	102	22	32	37

Utah St.            	74	63	64	110	57	70	59	63	68

UTEP                	83	99	97	102	57	102	22	63	10

Vanderbilt          	10	76	64	75	81	16	93	88	37

Virginia            	30	50	78	4	6	4	2	44	49

Virginia Tech       	105	76	110	59	57	28	59	44	27

Wake Forest         	105	63	28	27	12	53	72	44	87

Washington          	105	50	64	102	116	82	9	44	77

Washington St.      	83	76	86	110	116	70	72	16	110

West Virginia       	74	88	2	59	72	53	30	105	27

Western Mich.       	47	31	64	37	81	28	30	77	87

Wisconsin           	60	10	21	59	72	4	108	44	115

Wyoming             	60	19	2	4	12	96	72	77	115

Look at LSU. They were 70th and 102nd in 2005 and 2006, then suddenly finished 1st in back-to-back years in 2007 and 2008. Oklahoma went from 118th to 1st in the space of two years. BYU went from 112th to 2nd in two years and two years later were back at 95th. There is no pattern here. If you take a histogram of average fumble lost rankings by team, you get a tight, centralized cluster which is the hallmarks of a random distribution

AvgRank	Freq

0	 0

10	 0

20	 0

30	 5

40	 9

50	35

60	30

70	22

80	13

90	 5

100	 0

110	 0

120	 0

So what about the supposition that better defenses also force more turnovers? Using average yards allowed per game and fumbles forced for over 1,000 team-seasons, you get a correlation coefficient of -0.05789. There is basically no relationship.