Updates in Italic

Change Summary (28 August):

• Jaren Hall (+) moved up to "Safe on Roster" after comments from GM and more projections placing him there
• Dax Milne (-) dropped to "Bubble" based on more recent projections and Byron Pringle establishing himself as WR5
• Ty'Son Williams (-) downgraded to likely cut
• Found a projection with Zayne Anderson (+) making the cut...but still in the likely cut category
• Found a projection with Chris Brooks (+) making the cut...but still in the likely cut category
• James Empey (-) drops to almost certainly cut
• Braeden Daniels (+/-) to IR with torn pectoral
• Mohamoud Diabate (+) moves from bubble to "likely to survive" after GM says he's "in a good spot" heading into cutdown
• Nephi Sewell (+) moves from "likely cut" to bubble
• Eric Rowe (-) drops from bubble to likely cut
• Jackson Barton (-) and Darrin Paulo (-) both move from likely cut to almost certainly cut.  Their active roster time last year gave them some benefit of the doubt, but the time for that has passed
• Bradlee Anae (+) moves up to likely cut - just as a result of them still having not yet cut him with an injury settlement. He may stick on IR 
• Javelin Guidry (-) cut with likely injury settlement after sustaining season-ending injury
• Pita Taumoepenu (-) cut, as expected
• Darrin Paulo (-) cut by the Lions, as expected
• John Penisini (+/-) added to Utah already cut - had missed he was on a roster before this.  Would have had him as very likely to be cut
• Jalen Davis (+) moves to safe after a strong preseason
• Sua Opeta (+) moves from bubble to likely to survive after a strong preseason (and poor showing from his competition)
• Darwin Thompson (-) cut by Raiders, as expected
• Nick Vigil (-) cut by the Jets, as expected

Change Summary (29 August):

• Zayne Anderson (-) cut by Bills. Was always the most likley case, but not an absolute forgone conclusion
• Eric Rowe (-) cut by Panthers. Some noise that he might have a spot after IR cases are processed, so worth keeping an eye on him
• Terrell Burgess (-) cut by Commanders, as expected
• Tyler Larsen (-) cut by Commanders. He was a bubble case, so worth keeping an eye out to see if he comes back after IR moves are processed
• Dax Milne (+/-) stays on the bubble with news that Kazmeir Allen has been waived... but that Mitchell Tinsley is making the 53.  That's 6 WR confirmed on the 53 now, but Allen was his biggest competition as PR 
• Dax Milne (+) reportedly makes the cut.  He was on the bubble, but the team chose to carry 7 WR
• Brian Cobbs (-) cut by Cardinals, as expected
• Britain Covey (-) cut by Eagles.  This was in the realm of possibility (most projections debated it), but is a bit of a surprise (almost all had him making the active roster)
• Ty'Son Williams (-) cut by Cardinals.  This was likely, but not guaranteed
• Kaleb Hayes (-) cut by Jaguars, as expected
• Chris Brooks (+) makes the active roster! This means the Dolphins are carrying 6 RB, which is very high. I'm expecting Salvon Ahmed or De'Von Achane to be placed on IR soon since I can't imagine they'll keep 6 on the active roster.  Looks like they didn't want to risk losing Brooks though.
• D'Angelo Mandell (-) cut by Cowboys, as expected
• Mohamoud Diabate (+) makes the active roster.  Not a surprise, given where he was trending, but still exciting for a UDFA
• James Empey (-) cut by Packers, as expected
• Jonah Williams (+) makes the roster for the Rams, moving from likely to survive
• Calvin Tyler Jr (-) cut by Bengals, as expected
• Chris Wilcox (-) cut by Steelers, as expected
• Derek Wright (+) makes the active roster for the Panthers.  One of 7 WR being kept, this is probably the biggest surprise to me of everything so far today
• Sua Opeta (+) makes the active roster for the Eagles. Started on the bubble but outplayed his competition so not a surprise
• Matt Bushman (-) cut by Chiefs.  Beat out by Kelce, Gray and Bell. Hope was that Chiefs would carry 4, but didn't happen
• Nephi Sewell (+) makes Saints active roster. Had been on the bubble 
• Tomasi Laulile (-) cut by Broncos, as expected
• Leki Fotu (+) kept by Cardinals, as expected
• Jackson Barton (-) cut by Cardinals, as expected 

BYU

Clear Starters (3)

• Fred Warner (LB, San Francisco): likely the top LB in the NFL
• Brady Christensen (OG, Carolina): starting LG for the Panthers
• Michael Davis (CB, LA Chargers): one of 3 starting CBs for the Chargers (along with JC Jackson and Asante Samuel Jr) though it's still TBD if he's one of the top 2

Safe on roster (11)
most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

• Zach Wilson (QB, NY Jets): he's the backup. No chance he's the starter, but also not a chance he's cut
• Tyler Allgeier (RB, Atlanta): will lose touches to Bijan Robinson, but still will have a role
• Sione Takitaki (LB, Cleveland): didn't start last year until injuries opened a spot...but then played quite well until his own season-ending injury.  Think he likely starts, but with Walker and Owusu-Koromoah both returning as well, tough to say for sure...especially since Takitaki isn't yet healthy
• Blake Freeland (OT, Indianapolis): Has a real chance to emerge as a starter, but for right now, the Colts have two quality tackles (Raimann and Smith) ahead of him.
• Puka Nacua (WR, LA Rams): Given the Rams depth chart and his draft stock, there's no way he doesn't make the 53-man roster.  Beyond that he has a chance to become a solid contributor. Not playing in the preseason, which is a good sign especially since Skrowonek is.  I'd be surprised if he doesn't open the season as WR3 for the Rams
• Khyiris Tonga (DT, Minnesota): Was a suprise cut in Chicago last year, eventually finding his way to the Vikings where he played well.  The loss of Dalvin Tomlinson and new DC Flores' preferred 3-4 front mean he won't be reliving last year's cut-day unpleasantness
• Taysom Hill (TE/QB/?, New Orleans): Cutting him would mean $24M in dead cap.  Keeping him is only $7M in cap hit.  Even if he's likely to play less (recent additions at QB, TE, RB all reduce his role), the Saints are in no position financially to cut him. It'll be interesting to see where he plays as he could be a cap casualty next season.
• Jamaal Williams (RB, New Orleans): Though he's unlikely to lead the league in TDs again, Jamaal Williams has a secure roster spot.  It'll be interesting to see his role with Kamara and rookie Kendre Miller there.  He should get off to a good start though with Kamara suspended the first 3 weeks and Kendre a rookie.
• Jaren Hall (QB, Minnesota): He's the clear #3 and didn't have a great preseason... so could probably sneak through waivers, but with the new rule allowing 3 QBs to dress, he probably sneaks on.  Every projection I saw currently has him on - but every projection also currently described him as a very tough call.
• Dax Milne (WR, Commanders): There's some talk that Kazmeir Allen could take over KR/PR duties, but even in that case Dax likely does enough as a WR to make it.  The clear top 4 are McLaurin, Dotson, Samuel, Dyami Brown.  Then the last 2 spots will go to some combination of Byron Pringle, Kazmeir Allen, Mitchell Tinsley, Marcus Kemp (cut 28 August) and Dax.  Every projection I've seen has Pringle, which means one spot left (maybe 2) for the other 3.  Dax is most likely to get it and I'd say he's more likely than not... but 50% of the projections I saw had him...and 50% didn't.  UPDATE: Kazmeir Allen has been waived, but Mitchell Tinsley has been reported to be on the intiial 53 man roster.  This leaves no spots for Dax unless the team carries 7 WR...which isn't impossible. UPDATE: Reported that Dax has made the 53.  Moving from bubble to safe on roster!
• Chris Brooks (RB, Miami): Mostert, Wilson, Achane and Ingold (a FB they love) are all locked into roster spots - and if the Dolphins decide to carry 5 it's widely considered a battle between Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin (with Ahmed in the lead).  Brooks is probably playing to get a practice squad spot... but at least he's making good progress on that. Brooks continues to look good in the preseason... but so do Ahmed and Gaskin and he has to pass both of them.  At this point he's almost certainly  shown enough to get a practice squad spot (either in Miami or elsewhere), but still likely on the outside looking in for the 53.  Did find one prediction with him making it over Jeff Wilson of all people...but still in this category as most others don't have him - he's making a push for bubble though.  Biggest impediment is simply the number of quality RBs ahead of him.  UPDATE: Chris Brooks made the 53. Bit of a surprise and means the Dolphins are carrying 6(!) running backs which is crazy high.  Moves from likely cut to safe on roster

Likely to survive cuts (0)

Right on the bubble (0)

Likely cut (0):

Almost certainly cut (0):

Already cut (10):

• Matt Bushman (TE, Kansas City): He's looked good...but Kelce and Gray are the top 2 and Jody Fortson is likely #3.  If Fortson's shoulder injury lingers, then longtime Veach (Chiefs GM) favorite Blake Bell is likely next in line.  Bushman needs KC to keep 4 AND Fortson to be hurt (in which case he'd make the initial 53 over Bell since Bell isn't subject to waivers and can be brought back the next day when Fortson goes on IR)... but he's a near-lock for the practice squad at least.  He's very close to being up a category  Bushman didn't particularly impress in his preseason games (not that he was bad, just not great)...but the injury to Fortson is enough to bump him up a level. Every projection I checked had Bell ahead of him, so at this point it's basically down to whether the Chiefs keep 4 TE... so odds are against it, but he's in the mix. UPDATE: Not enough in the mix - cut on 29 August behind Kelce, Gray and Bell
• Ty'Son Williams (RB, Arizona): Helping his cause with a good preseason, but path is tough.  James Conner, Corey Clement and Keontay Ingram are all clearly ahead and Cardinals may only keep 3.  Plus they like Emari Demercado if they keep 4.  Keontay Ingram's injury gives him a chance.  My gut says it ends up being Demercado...but I kept seeing Ty'Son listed, so he was clearly on the bubble.  Didn't play in 2nd preseason game.  Given his status, they're not holding him out to save him, so it's possible he's nicked up. Literally no projection has him at this point though...so his odds are very long....and as of 29 August he was cut
• Chris Wilcox (CB, Pittsburgh): Drafted by the Bucs in 2021, cut in preseason, signed by the Colts who put him on their practice squad for the year.  Then cut in 2022 preseason by the Colts who again put him on the pratice squad...until they released him off that.  Then on the Cardinals practice squad last year.  Now with the Steelers, practice squad is probably the best-case scenario
• James Empey (C/OG, Green Bay): After spending last year going from practice sqaud to practice squad for different teams before being activated late for the Dolphins, that's probably his best hope here. Packers have a ridiculously deep and versatile line, and I couldn't find any source with him on the 53 man roster (though ESPN did mention him as a name to watch). Just a matter of depth here. Most projections have him being kept on the practice squad but it's a numbers game and their just isn't room for him on the GB active roster. Cut August 29
• Tomasi Laulile (DT, San Francisco Denver): Picked up likely as a camp body after a good XFL stint.
• D'Angelo Mandell (CB, Dallas): UDFA, basically brought in as a warm body. I'm sure he appreciates the opportunity to potentially show something, but realistically he's hoping to make the practice squad
• Kaleb Hayes (CB, Jacksonville): I couldn't find anywhere listing him on a 53 man roster (or even as a tough cut), so he's here...but I do think the limited reporting out of Jacksonville means this a spot for a potential surprise As of 29 August he was cut
• Zayne Anderson (S, Buffalo): spent most of last year on practice squads before getting activated and playing ST for the Chiefs with no defensive snaps. Long odds this season, as he's behind Hyde, Poyer, Rapp and Hamlin at safety...plus Cam Lewis who is a CB/S and ST ace.  Best hope is to look good and get picked up elsewhere. Worth noting that I did see one prediction that has the Bills carrying 6 safeties - including Anderson.  As of 29 August, he's been cut
• Harris LaChance (OG/OT, Indianapolis): Signed as a UDFA, cut 19 days later
• Payton Wilgar (LB, Kansas City): Received a mini-camp invite with the Chiefs, but never got a contract

Rostered last year, but not currently (4):

• Kai Nacua (LB/S): Made the Jets practice squad for the last month of the season after being unsigned in Septmber, October, November.  Currently with a USFL team and unlikely to play in the NFL
• Harvey Langi (LB): Played for 3 teams last year (Patriots, Broncos, Raiders), mostly on practice squad or ST and is currently unsigned.  Solid vet and leader who could get a role at some point
• Kyle Van Noy (LB/EDGE): Played well as a starter for the Chargers last season.  Not currently rostered, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't get picked up.  The Ravens have been in talks
• Daniel Sorenson (SS): played surprisingly well last year for the Saints when he got a chance, but as a 33 year old safety with mediocre speed to begin with, he's nearing the end of his opportunities.  

Utah

Clear Starters (7):

• Marcus Williams (FS, Baltimore)
• Jaylon Johnson (CB, Chicago)
• Garrett Bolles (OT, Denver)
• Julian Blackmon (S, Indianapolis)
• Matt Gay (K, Indianapolis)
• Cody Barton (LB, Commanders)
• Mitch Wishnowsky (P, San Francisco)

Safe on roster (11):

• Devin Lloyd (LB, Jacksonville): after disappointing last season, it's uncertain if he'll start, but he's in no danger of being cut
• Tim Patrick (WR, Denver - IR): An Achilles injury ends his season before it starts. He was a lock to make the roster and likely contribute....but with missing this season and the previous, he'll likely be released at season's end
• Tyler Huntley (QB, Baltimore): After a (somehow) Pro Bowl season, he's considered one of the better backups in the league 
• Zach Moss (RB, Indianapolis): Was in line for a major role behind Jonathon Taylor, but is now out to start the year. When healthy he has a great opportunity with Taylor holding out
• Clark Phillips III (CB, Atlanta): Will likely start with a ST role behind AJ Terrell, Jeff Okudah and Dee Alford, but has the potential to eventually displace Alford in the slot.
• Dalton Kincaid (TE, Buffalo): Lots of hype about him as a pass-catching threat for Josh Allen, but for now he's sharing the role with (or even behind) Dawson Knox
• Braeden Daniels (OG/OT, Washington - IR): Pretty far from playing, but as a 4th rounder, he has been fine, which is good enough to be secure in his rookie season. Tore pectoral and will miss 2023 season, should compete for sizable role next season
• Mohamoud Diabate (LB, Cleveland): Nobody initially had him listed as making the 53...but multiple did peg him as someone to watch, especially because he's apparently playing a major ST role.  Last week, nobody had him listed as making it...now it's hard to find a spot he doesn't make it.  He's impressed a lot and is a key Special Teams player.  At this point, he should potentially even be up a tier, but I'm not moving him that rapidly. ...and another few days later and with literally every projection listing him as making the cut and the GM saying he's in a good spot?  It'd be a bit of a surprise if he DOESN'T make the cut.  UPDATE: 29 August, made the roster, moves from likley to survive to safe on roster
• Nephi Sewell (LB, New Orleans): Honestly, it's hard for me to see him making the cut...but he's on multiple projections.  He's great on special teams and brings something a bit different as a pretty decent coverage linebacker.  One site had him as 60% chance to survive the cut.  Which seems about right.  He's on the bubble, but maybe barely on the positive side of it.  Mostly comes down to how many LB the team chooses to carry. UPDATE: Yup, he made it
• Leki Fotu (DT, Arizona): Almost certain to make it, but there's a fair amount of uncertainty on the Cardinals' defensive line and some young players looking good
• Bradlee Anae (DE, NY Jets - IR): So...he continues to be employed by the NY Jets, which I guess is a win.  But it's almost certainly just because he doesn't count against a roster spot, given his IR status.  Unlike other IR guys above (Daniels, Moss, Patrick), he'd likley be cut otherwise.  I guess it's a win that he wasn't released with an injury settlement

Likely to survive cuts (0):

Right on the bubble (1):

• Cole Fotheringham (TE, Las Vegas): Spent last year on Raiders' practice squad. Had a big week 1 in the preseason and starting to see him listed on a fair number of Raiders' writers projections.  He's a good blocker so that certainly helps his case (though Horsted is probably even better). Mayer and Hooper are locks and then the third spot is either Jesper Horsted or Fortheringham.  I think Horsted has the slight advantage, but it's close. 

Likely cut (0):

Almost certainly cut (0):

Already cut (10):

• Jackson Barton (OT, Arizona): Spent last year bouncing between the Raiders' active roster and practice squad, but haven't seen him listed on any projections.  He was on the active roster enough last year that I'm not moving him to almost certainly cut...but it's not looking good.  And update is still no mention of him, so benefit of the doubt is gone. Aaannd he's cut 
• Britain Covey (WR/RS, Philadelphia): Every place I check has Covey making the roster for his special teams ability... but many also seem to have him as the last guy in. UPDATE: Britain Covey is cut on 29 August.  Bit of a surprise, especially as Devon Allen (biggest KR/PR competition) also was cut.  Will want to see where he lands. Wouldn't be shocked to see him end up on the active roster later this season
• Eric Rowe (S/CB, Carolina): It looked to be 50/50 if he makes the cut...though most that think he'll be cut also suggest that the Panthers will bring him back immediately after getting him through waivers.  His versatility and experience make him more likely than not to make the roster, but it might not be right away.  More projections have him as the first guy out. He was cut on 29 August... but has a possibility to be added back after a few IR moves
• Javelin Guidry (CB, NY Jets): Guidry has bounced around from team to team, mostly on practice squads.  He's incredibly fast (an official 4.29 40), and teams keep bringing him in for a look. Had a very strong preseason and was making a case...but then got hurt and waived with an injury settlment
• Darrin Paulo (OG/OT, Detroit): He's spent the last few seasons mostly on the Lions' practice squad while occasionally being on the active roster, but never playing.  Seems likely to be more of the same. Only listed here since he was on the active roster for this same team at points last year. Like others, his benefit of the doubt has run out.  He's pretty clearly being cut.  UPDATE: As expected, cut late on the 28th
• Terrell Burgess (S, Washington): Burgess is probably the #6 safety and it's a suprisingly loaded position for the Commanders. Cut 29 August
• Pita Taumoepenu (DE, NY Jets): Suffers from the same issue as Anae.  If anyone is reading this far in, Taumoepenu is a cool story though.  2021 he was Broncos practice squad only. 2022 he didn't play. Then in Spring 2023 he played in the XFL and was their defensive player of the year which was enough to at least get him another look. Cut on 28 August
• John Penisini (DL, Carolina): Had been out of the league a few years after retiring young, tried to come back, but medical issues led to his release again
• Logan Kendall (TE, Chicago): had a mini-camp invite with the Bears
• RJ Hubert (S, Miami): had a mini-camp invite from the Dolphins

Rostered last year, but not currently (2):

• Marquise Blair (S): Was a starter in 2020 before tearing his ACL that year.  Had another knee injury in 2021, then spent 2022 bouncing between practice squads.  Was signed by Eagles this spring before being released due to injury. Seems like he's likely done.
• Chase Hansen (LB): Was on the Saints active roster last season before sustaining a season-ending injury.  Not yet signed, could be a veteran option for some team 

Utah State

Clear Starters (2):

• Bobby Wagner (LB, Seattle)
• Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay)

Safe on roster (5): 

• Dallin Leavitt (S, Green Bay): Has a large ST role
• Patrick Scales (LS, Chicago): Long-snapper means he's safe, but without a huge role
• Deven Thompkins (WR/RS, Tampa Bay): most (but not all) projections have him making it.  His return duties likely keep him safe despite a number of intriguing young UDFA WR (Kade Warner and Rakim Jarrett). Injury to Russell Gage has him now in the safe zone
• Jalen Davis (CB, Cincinnati): depth option at CB for the Bengals last year, will likely do the same this season
• Derek Wright (WR, Carolina): Spent last season on the Panthers' practice squad, has a shot to do so again Had him listed in likely to be cut...but looks like he made it

Likely to survive cuts (0):

Right on the bubble (0):

Likely cut (0): 

Almost certainly cut (0):  

Already cut (7):

• Tyler Larsen (C/OG, Washington): A long-time Ron Rivera favorite, but the team drafted a center, so it's 50/50 if he makes it. My initial take appears to have underestimated his appeal as most (but not all) projections have him making the cut.  UPDATE: Nope, my initial thought was correct and he was cut 29 August.  Keep an eye on him as a possible player to return after roster moves.
• Nick Vigil (LB, NY Jets): Not even discussed in projecting certain cuts and who would make it, cut in advance of cutdown day
• Calvin Tyler Jr (RB, Cincinnati): Signed as a UDFA and didn't get any time in their preseason game. Cut on 29 August
• Brian Cobbs (WR, Arizona): No mention of him in any prognostications (though he did catch 2 for 22 yards and a TD in the Cardinals preseason game). Cut on 29 August
• Darwin Thompson (RB, Seattle Las Vegas): already cut by the Seahawks, then signed by the Raiders and cut in preseason
• Logan Bonner (QB, Indianapolis Buffalo): Two mini-camp invites, but nothing came of either and he's now rostered by the Calgary Stampeders
• Hunter Reynolds (S, Tampa Bay): Invited to Bucs minicamp, but never got traction beyond that

Rostered last year, but not currently (1):

• Tipa Galeai (LB): was a key special teams player for the Packers before dealing with a season-ending injury last season

Weber St + ^Southern Utah + #Utah Tech

Clear Starters (2):

• Braxton Jones^ (OT, Chicago): starting LT
• Taron Johnson (CB, Buffalo): one of the top 3 CBs on the roster, so I'm considering that a starter. Probably the nickleback role

Safe on roster (4): 

• Rashid Shaheed (WR/RS, New Orleans): Huge success story.  Last year he was listed as certain to be cut...and was.  But then he played on the practice squad, then on the active roster and did well. This year he's WR3 and a likely (but not unchallenged) starter there
• Miles Killebrew^ (S, Pittsburgh): He's safety #5 for the Steelers, but a bit of a special teams ace, so he's pretty safe
• Jonah Williams (DE, LA Rams): was a longshot last season before impressing in camp.  There's some mild risk, but he's heavily likely to make the cut.  5 of 6 projections have him making the cut... but without exception they all mention that DL is a mess and lots of uncertainty there. UPDATE: August 29 he's on the initial 53, as expected
• Sua Opeta (OG, Philadelphia): they like him and want to keep him...but he's more likely to pass through waivers than some other options, so there's a chance he ends up being cut in the hopes they can sneak him to the practice squad.  Opeta has clearly passed his competition (Josh Sills) and is now pretty likely to make it, UPDATE: As expected Sua Opeta makes the 53

Likely to survive cuts (0):

Right on the bubble (0):

Likely cut (0): 

Almost certainly cut (0):  

Already cut (2):

• Darrius Nash# (DB, Saints): Received mini-camp invite with the Saints
• Jake Gerardi^ (P, Kansas City): Received mini-camp invite from the Chiefs

this is all based off what I'm reading from various local reporters, with categories loosely as follows:

Clear starters those listed as #1 on the depth chart by the team or OurLads. 
Safe are guys who aren't listed as starters, but are on every projection I found
Likely to survive were on nearly all charts, but there's an off-chance they don't make it
Bubble were listed on some but less than 75%
Likely cut were rarely included in projections, but at least were mentioned as a tough cut
Almost certainly cut are guys who didn't even get a mention in writeups

IR candidates are placed where they would be without IR.  In some cases it can hurt their chance of making the roster, but in others it can help.