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Aug 14, 2023
10:28:54am
krindorr Truly Addicted User
I'm not sure I'll ever understand this criticism; the data just doesn't bear it out

In 2022, there were 69 times that both Furlong and the AP poll ranked a PAC team. On average, Furlong ranked the PAC team 0.15 spots higher than the AP consensus.  There were only 3 times that he had a PAC team more than 3 away from the AP consensus

In aggregate, the AP ranked those 69 teams as 839.5 (where a lower total would be better) and Furlong ranked them as 829.  That's a total of him ranking PAC teams 10.5 total spots higher over every poll of the entire season or an average of 0.15 spots higher for each appearance.  So some tiny lean towards the PAC, but pretty small.

And that doesn't include the times he ranked a PAC team that the AP poll didn't (happened twice) or him NOT ranking a team that the AP Poll did (happened three times)

Broken down by team, different PAC teams had different advantages from him (as compared to the AP consensus baseline)

  • Oregon St: -1 (overall one spot lower/worse than AP ranks)
  • Oregon: -1
  • USC: -0.5
  • Washington: 0
  • UCLA: 5
  • Utah: 8

So there is maybe an argument that he favored Utah, moreso than favoring the PAC.  After all, in aggregate, he ranked non-Utah PAC teams an aggregate of 2.5 spots higher/better over 53 appearances (an average advantage of less than 0.05 spots per appearance)

Utah, on the other hand, he ranked an aggregate of 8 spots higher over 16 appearances, which is an average advantage of half a spot.  75% of that came in weeks 2 and 3 after he didn't drop Utah as much for the Florida loss...but it still counts.

So Utah's advantage from Furlong is decently meaningful, compared to the rest of the PAC. 

That said, there is one team that he gave a much larger advantage to than ANY other team, including Utah.  He ranked this team an aggregate of 26 spots higher/better.  And he did it in only 6 appearances, meaning that he ranked them an average advantage of 4.3 spots better than consensus.  But even in this short time, this team had more large positive outlier weeks than the ENTIRE PAC for the entire season.  And EVERY outlier was Furlong giving them a better rank.  

That team, naturally, is BYU.  

 

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Aug 14, 2023 at 10:28:54am
Message modified by krindorr on Aug 14, 2023 at 10:34:58am
Message modified by krindorr on Aug 14, 2023 at 10:54:58am
krindorr
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krindorr
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8/14/23 8:21am

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