winning.

Assuming both results are independent of each other that gives probabilities of:

12.9% Both teams win (which likely results in a BYU v. Colorado CCG)
15.3% Arizona wins/K-State loses (which results in a BYU v. Iowa St. CCG)
32.9% K-State wins/Arizona loses (which results in a BYU v. Arizona St. CCG)
38.9% Both teams lose (which results in an Iowa St. v. Arizona St. CCG)

Based on the numbers, I would say "neither wins" is the most likely result, but your poll says "which is more likely to put BYU into the CCG" and since neither winning CAN'T put BYU into the CCG, the most likely result that would put BYU in that game is K-State winning.