Arizona's only P4 win is Utah and it was a blowout. Only other AZ FBS win is against a really bad NM team. NM has improved as the season progressed, but lost to an FCS team and lost to a BAAADDD Wyoming team. The teams NM has defeated are a combined 2-19 in FBS games.

I think a relatively low scoring game with the Y winning by 2 scores is likely. Taking under on the 40.5 over/under I see currently. Obviously taking over on the 3 point spread. Something like your score.