I think we should have been a spot or two higher. It definitely shows some disrespect. I do think the committee has positioned us to drop us with a loss, which is unfortunate. However, I do not think there is a lot of worry about an undefeated BYU losing in the CC and being left out. It could happen, but I doubt it. Mostly because I do not think there are a lot of teams currently outside of the top 12 who will likely overtake a 1-loss BYU...and that is all that really matters.

Possible movement of the teams in the Top 20

1. Oregon - Not going to lose a game before the CC
2. OSU - likely to win out to CC
3. Georgia - No more than 1 more loss
4. PSU - likely wins out to CC
5. TX - Likely wins out to CC
6. Penn St - Likely wins out
7. TN - lose to GA and play @Vandy (if lose that, then behind BYU)
8. Indiana - plays OSU so likely a loss. (If they only play 1 good team and happen to get crushed, they "should" drop behind BYU)
10. ND - likely wins out (road game to USC has some risk)
11. Bama - if they lose @ LSU, then I think they remain behind BYU
12. BSU - likely win out, but does not matter...one of the G5 teams is going to be in regardless

These teams are already in, so none of them can actually "kick BYU out." But a few of them could trip up and be behind a 1-loss BYU

The teams that could pass BYU and "kick us out."

13. SMU - Likely have to play Miami and possible loss. We won H2H at their place, so tough to put us below them even if they win out
14. TAMU - Likely lose to TX...but a real threat if they win out
15. LSU - Play Bama, @Florida and vs Vandy. Likely 1 loss in there, but if they win out then a chance of passing BYU
16. Ole Miss - Play vs GA and @ Florida. Likely 1 loss in there, but if they win out then a chance of passing BYU
17. ISU - would take a spot if they win the CC
18. Pitt - will lose at least 1 game
19. KSU - would take a spot if they win the CC
20. CU - would take a spot if they win the CC
21. WSU - play nobody so no opportunity to move up enough
23. Clemson - if they win out and win the CC, then they likely steal a spot (meaning a 2nd ACC--Miami--team goes also)
25. Army - if they win out it means they beat ND and ND "should" move behind BYU. But outside of ND, I think their schedule is very weak

The odds of BYU being passed by enough teams to get pushed out of the playoff is very low. There is still enough football to be played, that several of the teams near BYU (and even in the top 20) will likely lose as well. The teams I worry about are the 3 SEC teams 14-16. Their schedules are hard enough that if they win out, they likely get in. If they all 3 win out, that would be bad. Of course it also means Bama loses, so maybe they stay behind us (but I would not hold my breath.)

If we assume that nobody currently in the Top12 falls out, then we have to get passed by 4 teams. If we lose in the CC, that means at least one team not currently in will be in (the winner of the CC.) And the next 3 likely candidates are the 3 SEC teams.