BYU isn't losing games this year to bad offenses.

The Ute's offense is tied for 94th in turnovers lost (14 turnovers, 2 fumbles, 12 interceptions). BYU is tied for 6th in turnovers forced (18 turnovers, 4 fumbles, 14 interceptions).

Utah ranks 74th in rushing offense (1,207 yards, 4.3 ypc, 5 rushing TDs), and ranks 107th in passing efficiency (122.36). BYU is 68th in rushing defense, but 4th in passing efficiency defense (96.3).

BYU isn't losing games because of their rushing defense. They are winning games because of their passing defense. We've played two Top 20 rushing teams (UCF 2, Kansas St 20) and the combined scores of those games was 75-34. BYU was +4 in turnovers in those games.

If BYU doesn't turn the ball over, like in 2021 when they had 0 turnovers, Utah doesn't have the offense to win. They have some limited success running the ball, but they'll have to find a way to throw the ball if they want to win. Something they haven't shown the ability to do this season and something BYU has only allowed only one team to have even decent-ish success (Baylor).

And if BYU builds any kind of lead, Utah will have to seriously think about going away from the run (their "strength") which further plays in to BYU's hand.

So it's the lack of Utah's offensive production and BYU's ability to defend the pass that is giving me confidence this week.