which program is most likely to get AJ's commitment. They're what prognosticators are guessing based on the limited information that is out there. But they really don't know where he is leaning.

My guess is that there is a clear leader in the mind of AJ and his family, and it may or may not be BYU. My guess is that he (and his team) are more than 90% decided, they just haven't announced it and they are continuing to negotiate to try to get the best deal they can get (which is what I would do in this circumstance).

So this is not like a lottery where there is a probability of a random event happening, and BYU has more ping pong balls in the hopper then the other programs. I think those who are guessing and making percentage predictions here just don't know where he is leaning so they are spreading things out among his remaining choices and nudging BYU a bit higher than the others based on a few things they know.

That, of course, is complete conjecture and may or may not be close to being true. And, sure, it may not be a hot take either 🙂