I think the networks, mostly ESPN, wanted to get all the premier football brands into two major conferences (the SEC & B1G), with the remaining non-blue-blood football brands (many of which are blue-blood basketball brands) into a third conference (the +1), but they had very little concern over which of the ACC, P12, and B12 took the +1 spot. Based on strategic thinking and actions by the B12 schools and an excessive lack of strategic thinking by the P12 schools, the B12 is the heir apparent for becoming the +1 and the P12 died off.

The P2+1 setup accomplishes a few important objectives with respect to the two money sports. First, it generates dramatically more premier matchups in FB to increase overall viewership through the SEC and B1G conference game seasons. Second, it preserves rooting interests in smaller markets and "flyover" territory in football and avoids anti-trust issues by giving reasonable access to the +1 conference to the CFP along with more limited access to the CFP for the best conference champion of the G5 leagues. Third, the +1 conference will eventually hold essentially every premier basketball brand that is not already in the B1G/SEC, which is a valuable conference given that the second "money" sport in college is basketball.

I don't think the networks really cared about what conference ended up being the +1 between the ACC, P12, and the B12 when this plan was put into place several years ago and so the +1 was going to be decided by the strategic leadership of the remaining P5 conferences. The B12 benefitted from its brands being poached first and so its leadership saw the writing on the wall earlier on and made the necessary moves for self-preservation adding the last four good options from G5/independence land. The P12 botched it by not finishing off the B12 when it was vulnerable at that time, which is a mistake the B12 did not make when the shoe was on the other foot. The P12 also made the mistake of believing itself to be on the same level as the SEC and B10, which makes it completely unworkable as a partner in P2+1 plan. That attitude by the P12, along with the network's plan, gave the B12 the ability to jump in line ahead of the P12 and score a really great TV deal for its remaining members that would then force the "four corners" schools into the B12. This locked up the last of the meaningful brands on the western side of the US and put Stanford and Cal on an island to rot.

This doesn't complete the +1 plan as the ACC is still in existence including 3-6 premier brands that will head to the B1G/SEC once the current GOR is up, but the B12 is clearly in the strongest position to be the +1 because of the stability of its membership, the quality of its BB programs, and the strategic thinking of its leadership.

I anticipate that no later than when the current ACC grant of rights is up (and likely a few years before that), the ACC will dissolve under very similar circumstances to the P12. Its top 4-8 programs in terms of athletic budgets and academic prestige will accept invitations to the B1G/SEC. This means Florida State, Miami, and Clemson are gone for sure plus some combination of 1-5 more programs out of Pitt, Virginia, VT, UNC, Duke, Louisville, Stanford, and/or Cal. I think Louisville is the longest shot from this group in spite of having an elite BB history and solid football history along with a large athletic budget because the B1G does still care about academics and the SEC already has Kentucky. The California schools are also a long shot because the B1G could have had them already if they wanted them, I don't see the SEC being willing to go that far west, and neither of those programs are in good shape and I expect they will be in a steady state of decline over the entirety of their tenure in the ACC.

The leftovers of the ACC will be ripe for poaching by the B12 for several reasons. They will face a similar situation to the P12 in terms of their ability to get a TV contract with a few solid brands and a non-trivial amount of dead weight. The B12 will be waiting in the wings with a TV contract in hand that includes an expansion provision guaranteeing good money to anyone in the ACC who jumps ship and the B12 will have had years to vet the best programs to select. Also, the leftover ACC schools are not going to forget what happened to Washington State and Oregon State and so they should be lining up to join the B12 at that point simply in order to avoid getting left out in the cold.

I think the B12 will add as many of the ACC leftovers as is required to set up an eastern division and ensure that the ACC goes the way of the dodo bird and the P12. So if the B1G and SEC take 6 teams then I think the B12 takes 6, but if the SEC/B1G take only 4 teams then the B12 takes 8. Lots of good brands and exciting matchups will come into play at that point.