Agreed, Under the current system. . . the Top 4 at-large bids host 1st round (or the 5th conference champion and 3 at-large)

Looking at how the voters are placing their ballots and everything, my guess is the top 4 at-large teams will all be in the Big10/SEC. Possibly a Clemson, Notre Dame, other ACC/Big 12. . . But unlikely. This means BYU's best chance is somehow be the 5th conference champion.