like you said, they're pitching is mediocre at best for the playoffs. If this were a seven game series, I might feel a little better. They are very capable of scoring a lot of runs at any given time, but it won't be that easy against the Padres pitching lineup. Also, the padres have some heavy hitters themselves.
Right now I would give the Dodgers slightly below a 50% chance since they gave up their home field advantage.