Option 1: This year’s BYU basketball team finishes Top 3 in the Big 12 and goes to at least the Sweet 16. They could go farther than that, but that’s all this option gurantees.

Option 2: No guarantee about this year’s team (could be great, could be disappointing), but AJ does pick BYU and ends up as the #1 overall pick. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything about BYU’s performance while he’s here (see Ben Simmons, Cade Cunningham, Michael Beasley, etc.), but he still goes #1.