in that they don’t account for specific situations and momentum swings that can result from failed conversions. I felt like the first failed conversion pumped up Arizona and gave them momentum after utah had come out and put together a very nice initial drive. This carried over to the next utah drive, and the second failed conversion really swung the momentum Arizona’s way, permanently this time. And it deflated utah — their offense never really looked very good again after that.

Not only did utah not get the 6 points, but they also unnecessarily gave Arizona the opportunity to gain confidence and capture momentum with a couple of big plays. IMO favorites should think hard before giving these types of momentum-swinging, confidence-building opportunities to lesser opponents.

I’m not saying that utah would have won had they kicked FGs on those first two drives, but the game may have unfolded very differently had KWitt not decided to gamble unnecessarily early on in the game.