As I said, we wouldn't even have to go undefeated. We own the tie breaker against what may be the best team in the conference. Not to mention we already have overcome some big hurdles. Of our remaining 7 games, 4 are at home and we will be favorites. If we win all those plus beat Utah that might be enough even if we lose at UCF and ASU. Or just go 6-1. There are a lot of paths.

Edit: FPI now gives us 23% chance