If you make no change to the future win probabilities of our other opponents and turn Baylor into a win, the probability of 10-2 or better becomes 27%. If you make some reasonable adjustments to the future win probabilities to reflect that BYU is now a better team than model thought pre-Baylor win, you could get as high as a 37% chance of going 10-2 or better.

The odds of going undefeated are now around 1 in 250. That changes to somewhere between 1 in 66 and 1 in 133 with a Baylor win.