CME tool said it was 50-50 today

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Sep 18, 2024
12:05:48pm

RexIdaCoug All-American

Still surprising. I was not expecting such a dovish fed today.

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RexIdaCoug

Bio page: RexIdaCoug
Joined: Nov 17, 2006
Last login: Sep 19, 2024
Total posts: 17,902 (2,401 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

50 basis points. Wow.

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:01pm

Whoa. I would've bet the farm on 25.

gangbusters

Sep 18, 12:02pm

The market was already pricing in the 50 basis points.

RH84025

Sep 18, 12:03pm

CME tool said it was 50-50 today

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:05pm

I read market was pricing 50 in (65% chance) but most economists were betting 25

BikeGuy

Sep 18, 12:40pm

Me too. I’m very surprised.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:04pm

I noticed yesterday that mortgage rates were down about .5%.

Florwood

Sep 18, 12:04pm

No, mortgage rates follow the 10 year note, not the overnight rate

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:06pm

Crystal clear indication that the economy is not doing well.

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:07pm

and that an election is around the corner

PabloSanchezz

Sep 18, 12:09pm

Or inflation has cooled enough.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:10pm

AKA the economy is not doing well.

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:12pm

By what metric? GDP growth 3 percent in Q2

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:16pm

GDP numbers are propped up by government spending & the

gopman

Sep 18, 12:20pm

We will have to take your word for it if we can’t use any metrics.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:23pm

LOL. The metric is the .50 bps rate cut. You can play hide the football all

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:27pm

So when we raised interest rates record levels

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:30pm

No. Large movements either way indicate there's a big problem ahead that we HAVE

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 12:38pm

We all acknowledge we are working our way

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:46pm

If you believe the numbers they give you I have a bridge......

gopman

Sep 18, 12:57pm

So there is no reason to have any discussions at all.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:09pm

How many times do I have to refute the data on this board?

gopman

Sep 18, 1:24pm

I don’t know….7?

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:30pm

To be clear, I'm not saying don't believe the numbers. I'm saying the economy is

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 1:30pm

I understand your position.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:34pm

You can't. Because the fed can just keep cutting rates there is no play

rcbyufan

Sep 18, 1:39pm

But eventually it collapses? How will we know that you are right.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:43pm

Very doubtful. For the last 12 months the FED has emphasized shelter inflation.

rad dawg

Sep 18, 12:16pm

Or that CPI numbers are made up.

Longseason

Sep 18, 12:56pm

I’ll double down on that and do even know we aren’t living in a computer sim?

NYCougz

Sep 18, 1:16pm

Expecting two more 25 basis point cuts this year as well if I read it right?

SlyCoug

Sep 18, 12:09pm

So we are officially in a recession then

CougarCanuck76

Sep 18, 12:10pm

We have been in a manufacturing recession for the last 12 months.

SausageKing

Sep 18, 12:11pm

Can confirm

Cougarclaw

Sep 18, 12:24pm

Inflation my old friend. Welcome back. This seems premature.

Ycrazy

Sep 18, 12:10pm

Feels like 25 basis points would make more sense.

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:12pm

This is my concern as well.

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:14pm

Dont worry, they will change the CPI again until it matches their model.

Longseason

Sep 18, 12:57pm

I was hoping for some non-basis points. Very disappointed

Nikomedes

Sep 18, 12:11pm

And some say that the Fed is not political. BS.

BlackBart

Sep 18, 12:14pm

I am in that camp. I don't think they are political.

RexIdaCoug

Sep 18, 12:17pm

Dems said the same thing about the Fed

NYCougz

Sep 18, 12:17pm

I saw a pretty good bump in the first five minutes and now I’m back to where

RC Vikings

Sep 18, 12:15pm

It’s back up again

RC Vikings

Sep 18, 12:29pm

Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5?

ldssdl

Sep 18, 12:22pm

Interest rates in this country that you use to buy a house or a car

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