Bart Torvik has 2025 preseason team ratings. Utilizing that and projected win % for the conference season, I ran 1,000 simulations of the Big 12 season and below reflects the range of conference victories for those simulations.



Feel like from this 4 tiers emerge. With these ratings, it appears Houston, Kansas and Iowa State would compete to win the conference. There's a huge second tier, of which BYU is a part of, that will be a slugfest. BYU is in 7th when looking at average # of victories across simulations.

Line between 2nd and 3rd tier was hard for me - was debating moving the line 1 team either direction. Those teams probably competing to try to make NCAA tourney.

Then bottom tier with Colorado looking worst of the bunch.