this point I’d say they have the best chance of not making it to the second round, of the teams in the poll. Or of going through as a 2nd- or 3rd-place team, and having a tough matchup in the second round.

Croatia are in worse shape than Italy, with the 3-0 loss to Spain yesterday, but they aren’t an option in the poll.

Other than Italy, the Netherlands probably have the greatest chance of finishing second in their group, and having a more difficult 2nd-round opponent, since they’re in the same group with France.

Germany, England, Portugal, and Belgium are by far the best teams in their groups, and should win them easily.