Much has been said about Jaren's extremely slow start to the Notre Dame game, with speculation that he was nursing an injury from the USU game being one reason he was not his usual self. I wanted to go through his pass attempts in the first half and see what happened and what could've been done.
Jaren is 0-1 1 INT
The first play, the pick that no one can explain. What's so puzzling about this throw is that it's so uncharacteristic of Jaren to force the throw to Romney, but leave the ball so short.
I think three factors are at play here.
1. I think Notre Dame expected a deep shot right off the bat (if you remember we threw it deep to Romney 1st play last game). They bring heavy pressure and leave the middle of the field quite open. Both corners never turned their heads to run with Nacua/Romney but instead kept eyes in the backfield over 15 yards downfield. That's specifically coached, and they don't do this as dramatically the rest of the game. ND knew we were going deep out of the gates.
2. Jaren didn't step into the throw. The ball doesn't have the velocity that Jaren typically throws with. If he meant to hit Romney in stride he needed to drive this ball much further.
3. I think this ball is thrown short on purpose. Hall may have been hurt, but he threw better passes this game, and even though some were also slightly off-target, he didn't short a pass nearly this badly. I think he may have meant to throw it to Romney on a comeback route, but Romney didn't expect it. Had the CB had his back turned this would fall incomplete most plays.
Jaren is 0-2 1 INT
Adding fuel to the speculation that Jaren is hurt is his 2nd pass, a ball to nobody. This pass lands >10 yards from any receiver, but I don't think Jaren misses his man that dramatically. It looks like Jaren expected Nacua to settle into the opening in the defense, but he and Jaren weren't on the same page. Without knowledge of the route trees BYU runs, I suspect there are a lot of option routes that receivers can use to adjust their routes to holes in the defense. It looks like Nacua and Jaren make different reads here.
If Jaren scanned the right side of the field first, he could've hit Rex for a quick 1st down gain, but it's not his first read and the window closes quickly.
Jaren is 1-3 1 TD 1 INT
Finally a completion! A brilliant read on the man-to-man coverage, Epps runs a glide pre-snap and his quick change of direction into an out-breaking route means his man is caught out of position for the easy touchdown. This is the first time I've seen BYU run this route this season, and it came at a crucial time. Why do we struggle so much with 3rd/4th downs and 2-point conversions, if we have this type of play creativity hiding in the wings? More of this type of misdirection, please.
Jaren is 2-4 1 TD 1 INT
This is a typical pass play, Jaren makes a quick read and delivers the ball with pace to the right spot. BYU seems to be adjusting to Notre Dame's defensive calls and making quicker passes to get quick yards.
Jaren is 2-5 1 TD 1 INT
This is the pass that is nearly intercepted for a likely touchdown. The ball is so far off target I think this is another example of an option route. I think it's more likely Jaren expected Cosper to run an out route than his pass was so poorly thrown. Cosper's body language indicates he's running an out route, but he stops quickly right as the ball is thrown. I don't know who is at fault.
Jaren is 2-5 1 TD 1 INT
The safety. Notre Dame rushes 5 and forces pressure off the edge. Jaren doesn't have time to look left to see Hill wide open on the slant route. Hall looks like he almost passes to Epps, but doesn't force the throw into very heavy traffic. Something in this play goes wrong, either the play design is bad, or someone runs a bad route, because there are absolutely no throwing lanes with 6 men in a small window. Hall probably could've completed the pass to Epps, the LB's back was turned, but he hesitated just a moment and the rush got home. I feel like this play would've been better flipped, with three routes on the field side, not constricted by the boundary.
Jaren is 3-6 1 TD 1 INT
Now there is only 1:03 left in the half, and BYU has barely had the ball the entire first half. If BYU had timeouts still that would open up the playbook and allow BYU to have a much better chance of even getting in field goal range. As is, they need to traverse the field quickly and efficiently. This play is not that. A 3-yard completion drains 30 seconds off the clock.
Jaren is 3-6 1 TD 1 INT
Because the ball didn't get out of bounds (or a 1st down) the time is halved, and there's little hope for a scoring drive. Jaren tucks this ball and gets the 1st down, a fair decision.
Jaren is 3-7 1 TD 1 INT
Needing a couple of long completions, Jaren makes a good read and throws to Romney on the dig route. Romney has outside leverage and is in position to get 10+ yards, a needed completion. Jaren puts the ball just out of reach of Romney and it falls incomplete.
Jaren is 3-8 1 TD 1 INT
Now it's desperation time, BYU needs 30 yards in 1 or maybe two very quick plays. Rather than putting the ball in play, Jaren launches this way out of bounds. This seems so far off-target I think it was deliberate. The team runs out the clock to halftime down 12.
Conclusions: I don't know if Jaren is hurt, but I don't think he was as hurt as his stat line seems. His final 2 passes of the half were off target, and the first throw (the INT) was not a good decision, but I don't know enough about the plays called to blame him for others. He did seem timid, but his protection was shaky and he was never able to get into a rhythm. He made good throws in the half and made quick reads, but the results were extremely poor.
We've seen Hall be very effective out of the pocket, with options to run or pass, or to extend the play, and I would've liked to have seen a rollout or bootleg called early in the game to give Jaren a chance to build some confidence. He only had 3 attempts in the first quarter, and only 3 more pass plays were called before the final minute of the half. Jaren just didn't have the ball in his hands, and his lack of rhythm showed. You could make the case we ran more often than normal because Hall was not fully healthy, and that would be a fair point, but I still think he didn't have many chances to get in a rhythm. Then we needed him to drive the field in 1:00, and he's only thrown 5 passes.
This game was frustrating, and the offense really struggled to get anything going, but I can't put that all on Hall's shoulders. Some questionable play design (that safety play), and a lack of opportunity put him in a difficult spot. Still, he struggled a lot, and I hope the issue can be resolved by next week. Arkansas' pass defense is the weak link of their team, and I hope ARod is taking cues from MSU on how to exploit them. I expect a strong bounceback from Hall.