There will be unavoidable tradeoffs. Back to herd. In Utah, with a zillion

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Apr 11, 2020
11:01:56am

Cougarbib Intervention Needed

There will be unavoidable tradeoffs. Back to herd. In Utah, with a zillion

little kids, that part of the herd will not pressure the hospital much. Continued social distancing at a practical level will further spread out the impact. And cocooning the elderly and frail is absolutely essential. They are the ones that would clog up the hospitals.

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Cougarbib

Bio page: Cougarbib
Joined: Jul 28, 2003
Last login: Sep 21, 2024
Total posts: 40,952 (111 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

This expert says we should be doing herd immunity not isolation

VballDad

4/10/20 1:41am

Love this guy: “I don’t work for the govt, I can follow the science”

Run-DMT

4/10/20 1:43am

"We've been told to go indoors where the virus thrives." "We should be outdoors"

777

4/10/20 2:04am

You started it at the perfect spot

Bin01015

4/10/20 6:51am

German study showed 15% got it. Nevertheless, you need about 70% for herd

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:27am

He is right. Someone needs to ask Birx why there is no discussion of getting

Cougarbib

4/10/20 2:16am

Herd immunity requires 90%+. That’s why this isn’t a top priority.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 7:42pm

Where did you get 90%+ for Covid-19 Herd immunity?

Zoobieman

4/10/20 7:44pm

Measles and Mumps as examples. Some could be as low as 70%

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 10:21pm

It is the only practical reality absent a vaccine. And we

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:40pm

Sure. Eventually. But the goal is not herd immunity. It is to avoid

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 11:55pm

Herd immunity prevents deaths. BTW, blindly pursuing reduced Covid deaths like

Cougarbib

4/11/20 1:29am

Let’s stick with herd immunity idea.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 10:42am

There will be unavoidable tradeoffs. Back to herd. In Utah, with a zillion

Cougarbib

4/11/20 11:01am

If we consider old and young separate herds then I get you.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 2:25pm

I read 70% with German study article. 90% is even better,

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:38pm

For the TLDR crowd, here is what he says we need to do right now...

777

4/10/20 2:53am

Clearly, you are ALL in the TLDR crowd, because if you had bothered to actually

Game Changer

4/10/20 3:45am

He's still closer than 2 million model without social distancing. Is that your

777

4/10/20 4:22am

I'm saying find yourself another fake expert. And I'm confident that you will.

Game Changer

4/10/20 4:47am

Are you even going to argue against his theory of herd immunity or are you just

777

4/10/20 4:59am

Honest question

bythenumbers

4/10/20 6:13am

He also said multiple times Americans shouldn’t worry about this

BYU '80

4/10/20 9:16am

220K was 10 days ago. In the beginning Fauci reported that this would not

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:40am

I agree. Data is the key and early estimates were based

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 3:28pm

Sure. Seems like there is a lot you don't understand. Let's talk through it.

Game Changer

4/10/20 7:10pm

Sure. We all know to go to CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, MSNBC, etc.,

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:47pm

Is this guy's prediction not closer than the 2 million estimate?

bluelands

4/10/20 6:07am

He's not interested in answering that question because that means admitting we

777

4/10/20 4:54pm

Wait, Hold up.

Zoobieman

4/10/20 5:20pm

Where does he point out his analysis is wrong? He only pointed out

777

4/11/20 2:16am

Exactly, your dude was wrong (About the death count)

Zoobieman

4/11/20 3:35am

Does it matter? Fauci et al are constantly updating things as data becomes

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 10:44am

Here are some problems with what you are saying.

Jingleheimer

4/10/20 11:30am

Absolutely. He's refusing to answer why the experts he trusts have predictions

777

4/10/20 4:56pm

This is a thoughtful response. If I may add a few comments:

Game Changer

4/10/20 7:31pm

And then the media ran with the extreme number and fanned the flames. And you

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:51pm

But you are ignoring the fact that Fauci and Birx brought out those models to

777

4/11/20 2:13am

I addressed this in my post above. Fauci, unlike most CBers, actually knows how

Game Changer

4/11/20 4:31am

Some additonal thoughts on fake experts in academics...

Jingleheimer

4/11/20 6:56am

Great thoughts, again. I agree with most of what you're saying.

Game Changer

4/11/20 11:27am

That's fair. I guess I'd ask you how confident you are that he is wrong?

Jingleheimer

4/11/20 12:50pm

Extremely confident, for a few reasons.

Game Changer

4/11/20 6:33pm

Nobody believes it is 34 times as deadly as the flu. They did in Feb and

Cougarbib

4/11/20 10:01pm

Period...hard stop? Okay. Try this.

Jingleheimer

4/12/20 6:00am

By your theory there basically are no experts

4/10/20 4:24am

This is a statement with legs.

johnnybyu

4/10/20 4:29am

I'm saying this particular guy is definitely not an expert. Do you think he is?

Game Changer

4/10/20 4:50am

Why don't you propose who you think is an expert?

Goliath

4/10/20 7:01am

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

4/10/20 7:57am

Sounds like to him the only "experts" claiming mass destruction. SMH....

BleedCougarBlue2

4/10/20 9:24am

Great question.

bald man

4/10/20 10:05am

My argument has been straightforward. It's pretty easy to understand.

Game Changer

4/10/20 7:16pm

In other words - you have nothing any better. Thanks.

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:53pm

I think "this guy" is smarter than you on this. Big time.

BleedCougarBlue2

4/10/20 9:23am

That’s because there are no experts

buffgato

4/10/20 7:49am

^^^ Bingo! Now get both sides of this argument to accept that. ^^^^

Oatmeal

4/10/20 7:55am

Sounds like his 6k deaths was closer than the “models” the leaders now abandoned

VballDad

4/10/20 8:25am

We don’t know what would have happened with his approach.

Misteak

4/10/20 8:29am

So then he’s way closer than the other experts

BYU '80

4/10/20 9:15am

Still not very good about admitting you're wrong, eh? The US has cried wolf &...

BleedCougarBlue2

4/10/20 9:33am

6,000 was too optimistic for sure. Compare and contrast to those predicting

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:32am

blah blah blah ... I hate Trump

hitechcpa

4/10/20 3:56pm

Why do you hate Trump?

Zoobieman

4/10/20 5:25pm

Yeah...I've basically thought the same thing for the last few weeks.

Jingleheimer

4/10/20 4:49am

That guy doesn’t inspire much confidence. Interviewer and poor production...

BamaCoug

4/10/20 6:49am

"Video seems like a fringe kid baiting a crazy old man..."

Oatmeal

4/10/20 8:00am

Video makes some good points, but the flattening ≠ widening.

Zoobieman

4/10/20 8:19am

TLDR we should stay at home during virus season forever then, not ok

VballDad

4/10/20 8:29am

I'm sorry but that was not the conclusion I wanted anyone to draw.

Zoobieman

4/10/20 1:42pm

Most projections I’ve seen still believe most will get this

BYU '80

4/10/20 9:18am

Yep. Flattening is not necessarily lowering the area under the curve.

Jingleheimer

4/10/20 10:39am

We should make sure > 50% get it and just make sure the

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:50am

My point was that flattening the curve

Zoobieman

4/10/20 2:00pm

If it keeps hospitals from being overrun with people dying in the hallways and

Cougarbib

4/10/20 2:10pm

There is a major problem with getting to herd immunity right now...

CougarBuddy

4/10/20 8:30am

Herd immunity among the healthy helps the unhealthy

BYU '80

4/10/20 9:19am

it's getting to that point that's the problem

CougarBuddy

4/10/20 9:37am

What do you mean by "make sure other diseases won't spread"?

Jingleheimer

4/10/20 10:42am

people didn't stop being sick or having communicable diseases because of corona

CougarBuddy

4/10/20 10:58am

May 1st.

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:52am

This a good goal, but 3 months is looking like the amount of time supply chains

CougarBuddy

4/10/20 11:01am

In 3 months the impact if locking down will be worse than the impact

Cougarbib

4/10/20 11:10am

i agree. But we're already two months into the supply shortage

CougarBuddy

4/10/20 11:45am

This is what we need to do. Unless data does not go where we expect it to go.

Cougarbib

4/10/20 1:47pm

Yes, but it needs to start to end May 1st when better prepared.

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:52am

Here's a UCLA doctor making similar assertions:

mbs6

4/10/20 8:40am

What's with the necklace?

Jacksonian76

4/10/20 9:01am

RE: What's with the necklace?

knuttyice

4/15/20 11:34am

Can you trust a guy who's first name is "Knut"? I mean he's literally nuts.. 🙂

morningcalmcougar

4/10/20 9:31am

RE: This expert says we should be doing herd immunity not isolation

4/10/20 10:22am

Because the scientists were so wrong. Studies are showing death rate of 0.37% in

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:56am

I think you are confused about the definition of science and pseudo-science.

Jingleheimer

4/10/20 11:14am

This guy is out of his league and seriously dangerous.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 12:45pm

Who are these truly informed and rational people? Name the one or

Cougarbib

4/10/20 1:50pm

I’m looking for further light and knowledge compared to what this guy says.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 2:41pm

Yes, but if nobody ever challenged the scientists to rethink, the world

Cougarbib

4/10/20 3:59pm

I have no problem with asking questions. It’s the hubris of

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 6:41pm

They are harmful. They are not useless. This is all about balancing the

Cougarbib

4/10/20 10:57pm

In this we agree. As information changes your response changes as directed by

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 10:48am

He's not any more dangerous than Fauci. Fauci has just tanked the economy and

777

4/10/20 5:06pm

How do you prove the 2 million deaths W/O intervention claim was false?

Zoobieman

4/10/20 5:30pm

You don't. But clearly nobody finds it slightly credible anymore. You do

Cougarbib

4/10/20 5:45pm

Here’s an Israeli virologist guy who has a similar opinion to Wittkoski

Run-DMT

4/10/20 1:14pm

Watching this video with co-workers tonight there was one thing we agreed with.

Zoobieman

4/10/20 10:15pm

I think he’s spot on re reopening schools and colleges. Let the young people

Run-DMT

4/11/20 12:02pm

RE: This expert says we should be doing herd immunity not isolation

knuttyice

4/15/20 12:17pm

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