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Mar 27, 2020
5:10
:22
pm
byukarl
All-American
I like that model much more then others
Hopefully, that is what happens.
Do you know if this model takes into account the extremely long time it takes for people to shake it completely? I've heard
it can take 21 days sometimes which could gobble up the beds.
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byukarl
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byukarl
Joined
Apr 15, 2003
Last login
Oct 5, 2024
Total posts
28,359 (699 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
This is a more realistic model than previous dire ones
CSoul
3/27/20 4:58pm
Maybe herd immunity is already in full force. I hope this is true out of Oxford:
Virginia Ute
3/27/20 4:59pm
The current trajectory I am seeing is we will hit peak in a week
CSoul
3/27/20 5:01pm
Or suggest that this virus mutated to a more lethal form.
IGlowInTheDark
3/27/20 5:05pm
Dun dun dun
CSoul
3/27/20 5:06pm
It may mutate slowly, but when it does...badness happens.
IGlowInTheDark
3/27/20 5:15pm
That would be easy to prove
CallingDingo
3/27/20 5:12pm
That is what they are doing
CSoul
3/27/20 5:13pm
If these Oxford studies are correct and it's so widespread, why do so few test
mannheimadler
3/27/20 5:13pm
They could have been counted as flu deaths or mostly carried by the young
CSoul
3/27/20 5:15pm
I thought many of the current tests are to see if you currently have it
webster242
3/27/20 5:25pm
Positive tests are for coronavirus, not antibodies.
Harbinger
3/27/20 5:26pm
This. If you had it and didn’t have symptoms or did and are better, you’re not going to get the test to begin with, and
Virginia Ute
3/27/20 6:46pm
The study makes no such claim
bythenumbers
3/27/20 5:34pm
What do you mean by "testing we are seeing" nobody is currently being tested
Lance71
3/27/20 6:15pm
Not true
bythenumbers
3/27/20 8:21pm
But it was tweeted by Candace Owens! Are you saying we should be skeptical?
russkiejedi
3/27/20 7:51pm
Dr. Birx said yesterday that to date the virus has not had an attack rate above
Bostonblue
3/27/20 7:55pm
Seems like it will be more spread out though no?
Josef K
3/27/20 5:06pm
NY and Michigan peak will be the U.S. peak
CSoul
3/27/20 5:07pm
even with large metros like LA and SF lagging only a little behind?
Josef K
3/27/20 5:09pm
The United States is a less homogenous population than any in the world
CSoul
3/27/20 5:11pm
We know you are really hoping for it to be bad.
BYU '80
3/27/20 7:00pm
I'm convinced that we are going to be stuck in restrictions longer than
wabluecoug
3/27/20 5:08pm
I like that model much more then others
byukarl
3/27/20 5:10pm
Yes it does, you can read the methods linked from it.
CSoul
3/27/20 5:11pm
What do you think about this as a way to potentially get us back to work?
ReyOso
3/27/20 5:13pm
What stops the virus from spiking again when we lift restrictions? Aren't we
mannheimadler
3/27/20 5:14pm
There would be a large number of people that are immune for whatever time
CSoul
3/27/20 5:19pm
The state by state projections are what matter most. That’s why I like this site.
YIsForBrigham
3/27/20 5:24pm
I came across this today as well
bythenumbers
3/27/20 5:35pm
Even in that model, NY is screwed.
benny1982
3/27/20 5:40pm
Sweden’s numbers will probably show first.
PorterRockwell
3/27/20 5:57pm
how accurate can this really be? china's been at 3,200 or so deaths for a long t
bald man
3/27/20 6:01pm
China lies...
Harbinger
3/27/20 6:07pm
that is what say, maybe even hope, but the truth is we don't know.
bald man
3/27/20 6:41pm
Sure we do. They haven't had a new case in quite a few days.
Harbinger
3/27/20 6:44pm
Assumptions does not equate knowledge and proof. I believe they are lying.
bald man
3/27/20 6:53pm
His model is already over projecting deaths by 15% a day.
The Old Y
3/27/20 7:31pm
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