The current trajectory I am seeing is we will hit peak in a week

Mar 27, 2020
5:01:39pm

CSoul Intervention Needed

that can only be explained by significant immunity or asymptomatic individuals because death lag is 4 weeks and we were not doing anything significant four weeks ago.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 27, 2020 at 5:01:39pm

Message modified by CSoul on Mar 27, 2020 at 5:05:21pm

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CSoul

Previous username: tsm26
Bio page: CSoul
Joined: Nov 20, 2005
Last login: Jun 26, 2024
Total posts: 67,371 (14,186 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

This is a more realistic model than previous dire ones

CSoul

3/27/20 4:58pm

Maybe herd immunity is already in full force. I hope this is true out of Oxford:

Virginia Ute

3/27/20 4:59pm

The current trajectory I am seeing is we will hit peak in a week

CSoul

3/27/20 5:01pm

Or suggest that this virus mutated to a more lethal form.

IGlowInTheDark

3/27/20 5:05pm

Dun dun dun

CSoul

3/27/20 5:06pm

It may mutate slowly, but when it does...badness happens.

IGlowInTheDark

3/27/20 5:15pm

That would be easy to prove

CallingDingo

3/27/20 5:12pm

That is what they are doing

CSoul

3/27/20 5:13pm

If these Oxford studies are correct and it's so widespread, why do so few test

mannheimadler

3/27/20 5:13pm

They could have been counted as flu deaths or mostly carried by the young

CSoul

3/27/20 5:15pm

I thought many of the current tests are to see if you currently have it

webster242

3/27/20 5:25pm

Positive tests are for coronavirus, not antibodies.

Harbinger

3/27/20 5:26pm

This. If you had it and didn’t have symptoms or did and are better, you’re not going to get the test to begin with, and

Virginia Ute

3/27/20 6:46pm

The study makes no such claim

bythenumbers

3/27/20 5:34pm

What do you mean by "testing we are seeing" nobody is currently being tested

Lance71

3/27/20 6:15pm

Not true

bythenumbers

3/27/20 8:21pm

Dr. Birx said yesterday that to date the virus has not had an attack rate above

Bostonblue

3/27/20 7:55pm

Seems like it will be more spread out though no?

Josef K

3/27/20 5:06pm

NY and Michigan peak will be the U.S. peak

CSoul

3/27/20 5:07pm

even with large metros like LA and SF lagging only a little behind?

Josef K

3/27/20 5:09pm

The United States is a less homogenous population than any in the world

CSoul

3/27/20 5:11pm

We know you are really hoping for it to be bad.

BYU '80

3/27/20 7:00pm

I'm convinced that we are going to be stuck in restrictions longer than

wabluecoug

3/27/20 5:08pm

I like that model much more then others

byukarl

3/27/20 5:10pm

Yes it does, you can read the methods linked from it.

CSoul

3/27/20 5:11pm

What do you think about this as a way to potentially get us back to work?

ReyOso

3/27/20 5:13pm

What stops the virus from spiking again when we lift restrictions? Aren't we

mannheimadler

3/27/20 5:14pm

There would be a large number of people that are immune for whatever time

CSoul

3/27/20 5:19pm

The state by state projections are what matter most. That’s why I like this site.

YIsForBrigham

3/27/20 5:24pm

I came across this today as well

bythenumbers

3/27/20 5:35pm

Even in that model, NY is screwed.

benny1982

3/27/20 5:40pm

Sweden’s numbers will probably show first.

PorterRockwell

3/27/20 5:57pm

how accurate can this really be? china's been at 3,200 or so deaths for a long t

bald man

3/27/20 6:01pm

China lies...

Harbinger

3/27/20 6:07pm

that is what say, maybe even hope, but the truth is we don't know.

bald man

3/27/20 6:41pm

Sure we do. They haven't had a new case in quite a few days.

Harbinger

3/27/20 6:44pm

Assumptions does not equate knowledge and proof. I believe they are lying.

bald man

3/27/20 6:53pm

His model is already over projecting deaths by 15% a day.

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