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Mar 26, 2020
11:18
:32
pm
kotacoug
Intervention Needed
Yes the math was spot on. All the numbers were gross miscalculations and
Incorrect assumptions. Keep doubling some on it though. It is amusing.
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kotacoug
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kotacoug
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Last login
Sep 14, 2024
Total posts
81,903 (4,756 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being “walked back.”
All-American
3/26/20 8:57pm
RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being
Samsonite
3/26/20 9:00pm
RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being
coolcats
3/26/20 9:08pm
RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being
Samsonite
3/26/20 9:09pm
RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being
coolcats
3/26/20 9:18pm
Good reply here.
JohnnyComeLately
3/26/20 9:00pm
Also, the current numbers coming in don’t reflect the effect of the measures
Samsonite
3/26/20 9:02pm
He’s not looking at “a couple of days.” He’s looking forward.
All-American
3/26/20 9:11pm
Based on numbers not adding up as he predicted.
Samsonite
3/26/20 9:12pm
This is 100% fiction.
All-American
3/26/20 9:18pm
How embarrassing for him to be that wrong.
Samsonite
3/26/20 9:22pm
Exactly.
Benfica1
3/26/20 9:11pm
lol. I have no dog in the fight. I think there is a very real chance we are overreacting. But a
Clark Addison
3/26/20 9:24pm
Cool.
JohnnyComeLately
3/26/20 9:26pm
So, as I suspected, you have nothing intelligent to say. Or worse, nothing interesting. 🙁
Clark Addison
3/26/20 9:31pm
No I just don’t care to argue.
JohnnyComeLately
3/26/20 9:33pm
My condolences to your wife...
So it goes...
3/26/20 10:45pm
Thank you.
JohnnyComeLately
3/26/20 10:58pm
It's a good reply because what the expert is saying makes no sense.
HONOMO
3/26/20 10:55pm
Dumb reply, actually. Go back and read his original paper, and you’ll see that
chilango
3/26/20 10:24pm
UK just barely started serious suppression.
HONOMO
3/26/20 10:56pm
Doesn’t matter. You can model it before it even begins. In fact, he did model
chilango
3/26/20 11:08pm
It seems like a convenient cop out to me
HONOMO
3/26/20 11:21pm
Let me use an example. Let’s say I’m trying to model someone’s weight loss
chilango
3/26/20 11:44pm
I think you missed some key words in my post b/c your example is irrelevant
HONOMO
3/27/20 12:11am
The best case scenario by following the strict guidelines was a million US deaths
JohnnyComeLately
3/27/20 12:29am
But if you read the study, the best-case scenario he modeled was modest and
chilango
3/27/20 12:40am
I literally linked and screenshot the New York Times article that most of us are basing our opinion on.
JohnnyComeLately
3/27/20 12:44am
Ok, what I see is an opinion piece in which the writer quotes an offhand remark
chilango
3/27/20 12:57am
An offhand remark where he specifically stated the best case scenario is 1.1 million US deaths?
JohnnyComeLately
3/27/20 9:51am
1.1 million was the projection in the original analysis.....
The Shazad
3/27/20 5:46am
Oh, come on. It is being "walked back". When you make sensational predictions
BeardedSpock
3/26/20 9:05pm
No, it is not. Absolutely it is not.
All-American
3/26/20 9:10pm
He's still guessing. His guesses are more educated than the average person's
BeardedSpock
3/26/20 9:14pm
Yes, it is. Absolutely it is.
Benfica1
3/26/20 9:16pm
Seems like he’s deliberately making the report unfalsifiable
hansel
3/26/20 9:18pm
The panic peddling liberals always had the out in their back pocket
bluelands
3/26/20 9:23pm
I suppose we could do nothing and count the bodies.
All-American
3/26/20 9:25pm
The report said we needed to keep the measures up until a vaccine. Is there a
Harbinger
3/26/20 9:18pm
False. Dude was wrong. I would eviscerate this guy in a courtroom.
shammy
3/26/20 9:19pm
I bet you could run a 4.4 40 too.
All-American
3/26/20 9:22pm
Are you married to his sister or something?
Benfica1
3/26/20 9:24pm
I’m predicting I can run a 4.4, but then I’ll revise it after I hit 4.4 seconds
Samsonite
3/26/20 9:26pm
That was cute. I’ll credit you that.
All-American
3/26/20 9:32pm
No, 5.9. but I’m excellent in the courtroom.
shammy
3/26/20 9:26pm
Remind me not to hire you as my lawyer. You would be crushed in the courtroom,
chilango
3/26/20 9:40pm
This is a desperate and angst filled post.
CoachSpeak
3/27/20 9:04am
they published another study today THAT SAID THE SAME THING
The Shazad
3/26/20 9:27pm
Yes, I get all the caveats and conditions and "to be sures". But that's not
BeardedSpock
3/26/20 9:38pm
like I said, the new publication today has the same projections
The Shazad
3/26/20 9:47pm
To say he’s using the same assumptions is flat out false.
Bostonblue
3/26/20 10:49pm
yes, it went up and made the projections go up a little too
The Shazad
3/26/20 10:56pm
He's changing his assumptions based on something he's seen. Yet, he won't
Bostonblue
3/27/20 9:25am
he's provided his code to a couple organizations so they can clean it up
The Shazad
3/27/20 9:30am
haha. Okay.
Bostonblue
3/27/20 9:32am
you think he didn't? what is the concern here?
The Shazad
3/27/20 9:39am
I've spoken with several doctors, including infectious disease experts, and they
Bostonblue
3/27/20 9:47am
I don't think it's scripture - it's probably wrong
The Shazad
3/27/20 10:05am
I agree the headlines got it wrong. But at a minimum, I still don't understand
Bostonblue
3/27/20 10:09am
I think it's in part...
The Shazad
3/27/20 10:22am
Cut them some slack. Their real expertise is predicting global warming...
Jasbo
3/26/20 9:56pm
Except nobody is doing nothing so why bother with that stat
BYU '80
3/26/20 10:28pm
Fake News
chilango
3/26/20 9:32pm
Fox News said so
coolcats
3/26/20 9:40pm
Is that why so many here believe this demonstrably false nonsense? I didn’t
chilango
3/26/20 9:42pm
it became a thing in conservative media today
The Shazad
3/26/20 9:45pm
Yes, that dastardly "conservative media", they made it up out of whole cloth
BeardedSpock
3/26/20 10:03pm
The part about his model being wrong and changing 500k to 20k deaths was wrong.
chilango
3/26/20 10:11pm
read that article then read some of the hot takes on it today
The Shazad
3/26/20 10:18pm
He should reject his model. His pride won’t let him
BYU '80
3/26/20 10:30pm
Extreme cases get modeled all the time. I just did one at work this week, which
chilango
3/26/20 10:34pm
the paper admits that it is likely that people's behavior would change
The Shazad
3/26/20 10:38pm
That number not being relevant is a fact
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:06am
Here is the critical piece you are missing.
All-American
3/26/20 10:26pm
So it’s the msm fault for pushing the extreme numbers as likely outcomes
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:08am
It's not being walked back, it's being proved wrong. Completely.
Harbinger
3/26/20 9:15pm
Of course.... LOL. I think we ALL saw that excuse coming.
kotacoug
3/26/20 9:27pm
The “excuse”? Meaning, actually trying to stop the spread of the disease?
All-American
3/26/20 9:31pm
Imperial College will go down in infamy as the biggest catastrophic load of crap
kotacoug
3/26/20 9:30pm
I honestly can't figure out why it became the gold standard when there were so
777
3/26/20 10:00pm
The media. Enemy of the people
YIsForBrigham
3/26/20 11:29pm
No, the only people who will think this are those who don’t understand modeling,
chilango
3/26/20 10:18pm
If the liberal press has anything to do with it I’m sure he will. We’ll
kotacoug
3/26/20 10:54pm
This has nothing to do with liberal or conservative. It has to do with math,
chilango
3/26/20 10:57pm
Yes the math was spot on. All the numbers were gross miscalculations and
kotacoug
3/26/20 11:18pm
No, you’re just making stuff up. That’s not what happened, nor is it how
chilango
3/26/20 11:47pm
If only we were all as gifted as you
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:09am
It’s a waste of time. People believe what they want.
Josef K
3/26/20 10:13pm
As do you on any number of topics
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:11am
I want to believe that the US will be roaring back to work by Easter.
Josef K
3/27/20 2:30am
That looks like the Miriam-Webster's definition of "Walked back" to me
DeekLyfter
3/26/20 10:19pm
Which part?
All-American
3/26/20 10:30pm
The whole statement. You can tell from the part he says that it isn't a walk
DeekLyfter
3/26/20 10:32pm
Why speak about the projection at all
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:13am
Because people think he is walking back the original, which is 100% false.
All-American
3/27/20 7:50am
But things have already been done so it’s a worthless projection at this point
BYU '80
3/27/20 12:11am
He should be fired until everyone who has lost their job is re-employed.
Unibro
3/27/20 6:57am
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