He's doing great IMO. He has 5 months to lose 10-15 pounds and get back in shape. If he was a June or July returnee, I'd be on board with you, but I think he's going to be fine.
Early in 2007 Austin Collie was barely jogging through sprint drills and looked as slow as molasses, but by the time the season opened he was BYU's most dangerous weapon.