in giving Napoleon the pitched battle which was the only kind of war he knew how to fight, forcing him to overextend himself untenably, was just a happy accident?

Napoleon himself knew better, knew enough of the region's history (see also Charles XII of Sweden) to, on seeing the Russians put Moscow to the torch, say "They are Scythians!"

A mere 18 months later, Russia had emerged for the first time as a true superpower and Russian soldiers were drinking coffee in the cafes of Paris (which is where the word bistro comes from), soaking up the liberal thinking that would lead to a century of unrest in Russia.