and lose in times of unexpected deflation. markets tell us for the past 30 years, there has been less inflation than expected as the 10-yr treasury yield has declined from 15% to 1.45%. i was one who thought rates couldn't drop any lower in 2003 when they declined to < 3.5%. i was wrong. those who shorted the bond market at that point and persisted lost > half their money.

let's hope we are not Japan, where the central bank has been desparately trying to create inflation for 20 years as the yen continues to appreciate and interes rates are near zero.

it is easy to predict that someday we will see much more US dollar inflation. whether that occurs next year, in 5yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs, 30yrs, is what we need to know to profit from it.