an 11-9 record in conference play (which is around what BYU is projected to finish) would put BYU squarely on the bubble. While it's way to early to say, I think BYU's chances are pretty good at getting in with that finish (greater than 50%), but it would still be as a play-in team or such with a very real shot at missing out - especially if there are a large number of bid thieves who win their conference tournaments.