Once they started consolidating them, it was the death knell. I've been saying all year, those with power want the Big12 champ to come in behind Boise, not because it makes the G5 look better, but because they can spin it that the Big12 is no better than a G5. Without Royalty programs in the conference it's only a matter of time. Next playoff iteration it'll be only 4 conference champions, and multiple byes for SEC/Big10. And as soon as the SEC and Big10 can get the valuable properties out of the ACC, it'll go down to 3 autobids, them 2.
It is already a P2, and people are just in denial about it. It doesn't matter how strong your play is. Sagarin says the Big12 is the second strongest conference, better than two conferences with Royalty programs. Does that matter? No. It's all about the power.